A new method for forecasting the solar cycle descent time

Kakad, Bharati; Kakad, Amar; Ramesh, D. S.

doi:10.1051/swsc/2015030

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…the 'rising time (RT)' for solar cycle 25 is assessed in this work, in line with Dabas et al, (2008Dabas et al, ( , 2010. The RT for solar cycle 25 is estimated by investigating a signi cant statistical association between the recorded peak RM and the RTs of previous cycles 10 to 24.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Rise Time and Pro Le Of Solar Cycle 25mentioning

confidence: 57%

Predicting Maximum Amplitude and Rise Time of Solar Cycle 25 Using Modified Geomagnetic Precursor Technique

Rajwanshi,

Kumar,

Das

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The sun is rapidly approaching towards the pinnacle of its activity in ongoing cycle 25. Solar activity variations cause changes in interplanetary and near-Earth space environment and may deteriorate the operation of space-borne and ground based technological systems (space flights, navigation, radars, high-frequency radio communications, ground power lines, etc.). Scientists predict the exact duration and intensity of each solar cycle based on a variety of methods ranging from purely statistical models using observations of previous cycles to complex simulations of solar physics. In the present study, we utilized the planetary magnetic activity ‘Ap’ index in relation to sunspot activity and sunspot area for the period 1932–2019, covering Solar Cycles 17 to 24, as geomagnetic precursor pair for predicting the maximum amplitude and its time of occurrence for ongoing Cycle 25. The monthly average sunspot data and disturbed days are processed through regression analysis and the obtained analytical results further validated by the observed sunspots of cycle 17 to 24. Hind casting results show close agreement between predicted and observed maximum amplitudes of cycles 17 to 24 to about 10 percent. A multivariate fit using the two best DI indices in variate block 9 also gives the similar correlation to about 0.94 with standard error of estimation (±14). This study divulges that the maximum sunspot number for Solar Cycle 25 is expected to be ≈ 112 ± 18. The probable peak time of cycle 25, after analysis, is found to be 48 ± 3 months. The peak might appear in between October 2023 – April 2024. The obtained results suggest that ongoing cycle akin to the previous Solar Cycle 24 in terms of predicted maximum sunspot numbers.

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Section: Evaluation Of Rise Time and Pro Le Of Solar Cycle 25mentioning

confidence: 57%

Predicting Maximum Amplitude and Rise Time of Solar Cycle 25 Using Modified Geomagnetic Precursor Technique

Rajwanshi,

Kumar,

Das

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Shannon entropy is proposed by Shannon (Shannon 1948) last century and applied to space physics recently (e.g., Laurenza et al 2012;Qin & Zhao 2013;Kakad et al 2015Kakad et al , 2017a. It is a commonly used quantity to characterize the inherent randomness in the system.…”

Section: Prediction Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model of Sunspot Number with a Modified Logistic Function

Qin

2018

ApJ

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Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative sunspot number or total sunspot number x m , initial cumulative sunspot number x 0 , maximum emergence rate r 0 , and asymmetry α. A two-parameter function is obtained by taking α and r 0 as fixed value. In addition, it is found that x m and x 0 can be well determined at the start of a cycle. Therefore, a prediction model of sunspot number is established based on the two-parameter function. The prediction for cycles 4 − 23 shows that the solar maximum can be predicted with average relative error being 8.8% and maximum relative error being 22% in cycle 15 at the start of solar cycles if solar minima are already known. The quasi-online method for determining solar minimum moment shows that we can obtain the solar minimum 14 months after the start of a cycle. Besides, our model can predict the cycle length with the average relative error being 9.5% and maximum relative error being 22% in cycle 4. Furthermore, we predict the sunspot number Corresponding author: G. Qin qingang@hit.edu.cn 2 Qin and Wu variations of cycle 24 with the relative errors of the solar maximum and ascent time being 1.4% and 12%, respectively, and the predicted cycle length is 11.0 (95% confidence interval is 8.3−12.9) years. The comparison to the observation of cycle 24 shows that our prediction model has good effectiveness.(1) with four parameters, namely, amplitude a, starting time t 0 , rise time b, and asymmetry c. They found that the asymmetry c can be taken as a fixed value and the rise time b is relevant with the amplitude a, so that the function could be reduced to a two-parameter form and the sunspot number could still be fitted well.They found that the amplitude can be estimated at the start of a solar cycle by using the correlation between Sunspot Number Model

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“…To inform solar cycle predictions which are crucial elements in forecasting geomagnetic activity, Kakad et al [] developed a novel model based on Shannon entropy to forecast the descent time of solar cycles. In related work, Vichare et al [] defined the quantum of solar wind kinetic energy during the main phase of the storms, and recently, Kumar et al [] estimated solar wind conditions associated with large storms using the Indian geomagnetic records.…”

Section: Science Highlightsmentioning

confidence: 99%