A New Measure of Group Influence in Presidential Elections: Assessing Latino Influence in 2008

Abstract

The importance of the Latino electorate has been the subject of both academic inquiry and media discourses. The question of Latino influence is frequently limited by an approach that focuses on single variable considerations (e.g., voter turnout or ethnic-targeted campaign spending) that are often contest-specific idiosyncrasies. Relying on theoretically appropriate concepts, the authors measure Latino political influence as a function of three factors: in-group population traits, electoral volatility, and mobilization. Using the 2008 presidential election, the authors demonstrate the utility of incorporating a multifaceted measure that accounts for the contemporary complexity within the electoral environment. Because this framework is rooted in theoretical concepts, as opposed to discrete group or contest characteristics, it may be applied to any “influence group” in different electoral settings. Data are culled from several publicly available outlets, making it possible for scholars to replicate these measures and further investigate questions associated with group influence in American politics.

Vote Switching in the 2016 Election: How Racial and Immigration Attitudes, Not Economics, Explain Shifts in White Voting

“…American electorate (Barreto, Collingwood, and Manzano 2010;Wong et al 2011;Abrajano and Hajnal 2015), rather than courting working class whites. The contemporary Republican Party has similarly struggled with white working-class mobilization.…”

It's Complicated: Latinos, President Obama, and the 2012 Election*

“…Most recently in the 2008 election, presidential candidates crafted campaigns that directly targeted the Latino vote. In part this strategy was motivated by Latinos comprising sizeable portions of the electorate in battleground states, such as New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, and the revised primary schedule that propelled some of these states’ primaries to occur earlier in the schedule than is typical (Barreto, Collingwood, and Manzano, ). The presence of a Latino candidate, Bill Richardson, in the Democratic primary and his potential to mobilize the Latino vote no doubt increased the salience of campaigning toward Latinos (Barreto et al, 2008).…”

“…In the general election, both John McCain and Barack Obama mounted targeted campaigns aimed at Latino voters and aired Spanish‐language advertisements in Nevada, Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico (Barretto, Collingwood, and Manzano, ). Both candidates attended events organized by Latino organizations such as NALEO, MALDEF, and NCLR, demonstrating their desire to appeal to the Latino electorate (Abrjano, ).…”

“…The influence of the Latino vote in the 2008 election was substantial because of the growth of Latino voters and turnout in competitive general election states (Barretto, Collingwood, and Manzano, ). According to their composite measure of group influence, which includes competitiveness of the state, minimum group size and unity in Latino voting behavior, and campaigns’ mobilization of Latinos, Latinos had a substantial effect on the race in several key battleground states.…”

“…Scholars and media pundits have inquired as to whether Latinos will be a formidable political force, or become a critical swing vote in presidential elections (Fraga and Ramírez, 2003;DeSipio, 1996). However, by and large much of that excitement has failed to materialize in a critical role of Latinos determining the outcome in the election or in dramatic increases in Latino voter turnout until 2008. In the 2008 election, Latinos demonstrated the strength of their political power with increased turnout in key battleground states (Barretto, Collingwood, and Manzano, 2010). In 2008, Latino turnout increased by 2 million to 9.7 million compared to Census estimates of 7.6 million Latinos in the 2004 election.…”