A new life system approach to the Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) with survival analysis, dynamic hybrid fault models, evolutionary game theory, and three-layer survivability analysis

Abstract

In this paper, I propose a new architecture for PHM, which is characterized by life-system approachtreating PHM as a hierarchical system with fundamental properties similar to those of life systems. Conceptually, besides drawing on the important concepts from existing PHM theory and practice such as life cycle, condition-based maintenance (CBM), remaining useful lifetime (RUL), I draw on the dynamic hybrid fault models (DHF) from fault tolerance theory and agreement algorithms, three-layer survivability analysis from survivable network systems (SNS), population dynamics from population ecology, and survival analysis from biostatistics and biomedicine. Methodologically, three main mathematical tools: survival analysis (including competing risks analysis and multivariate survival analysis), dynamic hybrid fault models and evolutionary game theory (EGT) are applied for PHM modeling and analysis. Operationally, the three-layer survivability analysis is applied to deal with the so-called UUUR(Unpredictable, latent, Unobserved or Unobservable Risks) events and to achieve sound decision-making. Overall, the advantages of the new architecture include: (1) Offer a flexible architecture that is not only compatible with existing components/approaches of PHM, such as lifetime, reliability, maintainability, safety, data-driven prognostics, and model-based prognostics, but also readily extendable to incorporate fault tolerance, survivability, and security. (2) Utilize survival analysis, competing risks analysis, and multivariate survival analysis for better modeling of lifetime and reliability at both individual and population (group of components) levels.(3) Approach the fault tolerance and reliability of the monitoring sensor network in PHM and those of the underlying physical system with the DHF models. (4) Analyze the system survivability (sustainability) with the three-layer survivability analysis approaches. (5) Capture security events with UUUR events and incorporate security policies into PHM.

Adopting and Adapting Medical Approach in Risk Management Process for Analysing Information Security Risk

“…Basically, information security risk analysis methods are classified into quantitative, semiquantitative and qualitative types (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, 2009Badr and Stephan, 2007).…”

“…However, today survival analysis has become a major tool for other fields of study for instance, in engineering reliability, networking and software reliability and survivability, machine learning, and prognostics and health management as stated in (Ma andKrings, 2008a, 2008b;Samrout et al, 2009) There are many examples of application of survival analysis approach in the medical field for example, which was done by (Ghazali et al, 2010). The purpose of this study is to identify the five years of survival rate and prognostics factors for survival in patients with colorectal cancer.…”

“…Therefore, "the study of survival data is focused on predicting the probability of response, survival, or mean lifetime, by comparing the survival distributions of experimental animals or of human patients and the identification of risk or prognostic factors related to response, survival, and the development of disease" as stated in (Lee and Wang, 2003).Examples of survival time are the lifetimes of organisms or survival times of cancer patients. There are several approaches to assess the associated risks with survival analysis namely, parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005;Ma andKrings, 2008a, 2008b).…”

“…Basically, survival analysis studies positive random variables with censored observations for describing times to events cases (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005;Lee and Wang, 2003;Ma andKrings, 2008a, 2008b;Ricci, 2006). Events can be for example reaction from treatment or death and response of a disease.…”

“…Risk management process is defined as a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of establishing the context, identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, 2009). In addition, precise security risk analysis method should provide two key advantages (Kim et al, 2007).…”