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The article presents a description of the current tick-borne infection epidemiological situation in the south of Russia from the years 2013 to 2022, proposes a new approach to develop forecasting models for morbidity dynamics of Astrakhan rickettsial fever (ARF) and Crimean hemorrhagic fever (СCHF) in the Astrakhan region and presents data assessing 2022 explaining models for the Stavropol Territory and Astrakhan Region. Materials and methods. A comprehensive research was performed using epidemiological analysis and non-parametric statistical methods. The data assessing tick-borne infections epidemic process manifestations were retrieved from ARF and CCHF morbidity databases (developed as a project) and documents of infectious disease focus epidemiological examination provided by the departments of Rospotrebnadzor in the subjects of the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts. Morbidity models were developed using the Bayes theorem and Walds sequential statistical analysis, with a preliminary calculation of indicators informativeness by the Kullback method. The values of climatic factors from the database of the Center for Collective Use IKI-monitoring of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences were used. Results. The results of the study indicate persistence of serious epidemiological situation regarding rickettsiosis of the tick-borne spotted fever group, Q fever, tick-borne borreliosis and CCHF in the south of Russia. Almost all tick-borne infections nosological forms in children under 14 years (including young children and infants) were widely involved in the epidemic process, which belong to patients at risk for a complicated disease course due to complicated diagnostics and treatment. The annual registration of tick-borne infections cases in the resort areas, with the subsequent occurrence of imported cases in other, including non-endemic regions poses a serious problem. The proposed forecasting models allow to predict the CСHF and ARF morbidity for each administrative district of the Astrakhan region with up to 91.7% accuracy. The explaining models CСHF accuracy for the Stavropol Territory and Astrakhan Region, when tested in 2022, was 88.5 and 83.3%, respectively, for ARF 91.7%. Conclusions. The further continuation of forecasting and explaining models verification for planning preventive measures and propose similar steps for tick-borne borreliosis and Q fever to epidemiological tick-borne infections to stabilize situation in the south of Russia.
The article presents a description of the current tick-borne infection epidemiological situation in the south of Russia from the years 2013 to 2022, proposes a new approach to develop forecasting models for morbidity dynamics of Astrakhan rickettsial fever (ARF) and Crimean hemorrhagic fever (СCHF) in the Astrakhan region and presents data assessing 2022 explaining models for the Stavropol Territory and Astrakhan Region. Materials and methods. A comprehensive research was performed using epidemiological analysis and non-parametric statistical methods. The data assessing tick-borne infections epidemic process manifestations were retrieved from ARF and CCHF morbidity databases (developed as a project) and documents of infectious disease focus epidemiological examination provided by the departments of Rospotrebnadzor in the subjects of the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts. Morbidity models were developed using the Bayes theorem and Walds sequential statistical analysis, with a preliminary calculation of indicators informativeness by the Kullback method. The values of climatic factors from the database of the Center for Collective Use IKI-monitoring of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences were used. Results. The results of the study indicate persistence of serious epidemiological situation regarding rickettsiosis of the tick-borne spotted fever group, Q fever, tick-borne borreliosis and CCHF in the south of Russia. Almost all tick-borne infections nosological forms in children under 14 years (including young children and infants) were widely involved in the epidemic process, which belong to patients at risk for a complicated disease course due to complicated diagnostics and treatment. The annual registration of tick-borne infections cases in the resort areas, with the subsequent occurrence of imported cases in other, including non-endemic regions poses a serious problem. The proposed forecasting models allow to predict the CСHF and ARF morbidity for each administrative district of the Astrakhan region with up to 91.7% accuracy. The explaining models CСHF accuracy for the Stavropol Territory and Astrakhan Region, when tested in 2022, was 88.5 and 83.3%, respectively, for ARF 91.7%. Conclusions. The further continuation of forecasting and explaining models verification for planning preventive measures and propose similar steps for tick-borne borreliosis and Q fever to epidemiological tick-borne infections to stabilize situation in the south of Russia.
е.В. Чекрыгина 1 , а.с. Волынкина 2 , е.с. котенев 2 , я.В. лисицкая 2 , о.а. Гнусарева 2 , а.н. куличенко 2 генетичеСкое профилирование воЗБудителей природно-очаговЫх инфекций, циркулируЮщих на территории СтавропольСкого края
Relevance. Molecular surveillance, aimed at obtaining up-to-date information on the genetic variants of pathogens circulating in the studied region, is an important element of the surveillance of natural focal infections (NFIs). The Stavropol Territory is one of the main recreational regions in the Russian Federation; it is endemic for a number of NFIs, including: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), Q fever, tularemia, Lime disease, etc.The aim of the work is is genomic profiling of NFIs causative agents circulating in the Stavropol Territory in 2016-2021.Materials and methods. Microbial strains and samples of field and clinical material containing genomic DNA/RNA of pathogens were used as material for the study. Genetic typing of strains and isolates of DNA/RNA NFIs causative agents was performed by MLVA (Francisella tularensis and Coxiella burnetii) and genome fragment sequencing (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, West Nile virus, orthohantaviruses, Borrelia burgdorferii s.l., Ricckettsia sp.).Results. As a result of molecular genetic typing in the ST in 2016-2021 confirmed circulation of strains of F. tularensis of genetic subgroups B.I, B.III, B.VI, genetically identical strains of C. burnetii (VNTR-профиль 4-6-6-4-7-6-3-12-3-11), rickettsia belonging to 5 species: R. raoultii, R. aeschlimannii, R. slovaca, R. massiliae, R. helvetica , Borrelia belonging to the species: B. afzelii, B. garinii, B. miyamotoi, B. bavariensis, B. lusitaniae, B. valaisiana, RNA isolates of the CCHF virus of the Europe-1 and Europe-3 genetic lines, Tula orthohantaviruses, West Nile virus genotype 2. For the first time on the territory of the CT, in insectivore lung samples, RNA isolates of orthohantavirus genetically close to Camp Ripley virus (RLPV) were detected.Conclusions. New data have been obtained on the distribution of genetic variants of NFIs causative agents in the S, also in the recreation areas. Genetic structure of the population of NFIs causative agents in the ST in 2016-2021 did not change significantly, which indicates the relative stability of the natural foci of NFIs in the region.
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