A New Framework To Idenitfy And Assess Hidden Assumptions In The Background Knowledge Of A Risk Assessment

Langdalen, Henrik; Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim; Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.106909

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Langdalen et al developed a novel framework for systematically identifying the knowledge required to furnish a risk assessment with good-quality background information. 3 The researchers used a risk analysis of a tracheotomy procedure to demonstrate this new framework.…”

Section: Assumptions In a Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spotlights: A Historical Risk Matrix Paper, VR Lab Safety Training, and a Systematic Approach for Identifying Unknown Assumptions

Goulding

2023

ACS Chem. Health Saf.

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Section: Assumptions In a Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spotlights: A Historical Risk Matrix Paper, VR Lab Safety Training, and a Systematic Approach for Identifying Unknown Assumptions

Goulding

2023

ACS Chem. Health Saf.

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“…Flage et al [34] developed a critical perspective on the use of subjective probabilities in risk analysis, showing how incorporating probability bounds may improve the performance of the analysis. Langdalen et al [35] dealt with the identification of hidden assumptions in risk studies focusing on the subjective nature of risk assessment.…”

Section: A Subjective Approach To Risk Analysis Through the Half-normal Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis through the Half-Normal Distribution

2020

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We study the applicability of the half-normal distribution to the probability–severity risk analysis traditionally performed through risk matrices and continuous probability–consequence diagrams (CPCDs). To this end, we develop a model that adapts the financial risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) to risky scenarios that face only negative impacts. This model leads to three risk indicators: The Hazards Index-at-Risk (HIaR), the Expected Hazards Damage (EHD), and the Conditional HIaR (CHIaR). HIaR measures the expected highest hazards impact under a certain probability, while EHD consists of the expected impact that stems from truncating the half-normal distribution at the HIaR point. CHIaR, in turn, measures the expected damage in the case it exceeds the HIaR. Therefore, the Truncated Risk Model that we develop generates a measure for hazards expectations (EHD) and another measure for hazards surprises (CHIaR). Our analysis includes deduction of the mathematical functions that relate HIaR, EHD, and CHIaR to one another as well as the expected loss estimated by risk matrices. By extending the model to the generalised half-normal distribution, we incorporate a shape parameter into the model that can be interpreted as a hazard aversion coefficient.

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“…There is broad agreement that adopting a systems perspective has merits. Langdalen et al (2020a;2020b investigate the merits of adopting a systems perspective in the analysis of risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Relevancy of Systems Thinking in Permanent Plug and Abandonment Regulations in Norway

Vikane,

Selvik,

Abrahamsen

et al. 2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

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More than 2500 production wells on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) will require permanent Plug and Abandonment (P&A) in the future. For this activity, the Norwegian regulations have, up to recently, adopted a principle of zero well leakage for perpetuity. This principle makes it appropriate to consider wells in isolation and ignore system effects, as any well leakage is unacceptable. The NORSOK D-010 issued in 2021 introduced a shift to this principle, by tolerating low-rate well leakage. Whether it is still appropriate to ignore the system effects has not yet been clarified. This article considers the relevancy and role of systems thinking in Norwegian P&A regulations, where Leveson's STAMP model is used as basis for the analysis. The system-wide effects investigated include well leakage in area perspectives, and whether feedback concerning well leakage is adequate for proper risk management. The analysis point to important system effects. Wells tend to cluster on the NCS, and certain clusters share characteristics associated with an elevated well leakage risk. We argue that a system's approach to P&A is required to properly manage the well leakage risk. The analysis indicates that feedback from well monitoring and well leakage detection fails to verify that the system operates properly, making identification of best technologies and best practices in P&A more difficult. A systems theoretical approach represents a way to strengthen current regulations.

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A New Framework To Idenitfy And Assess Hidden Assumptions In The Background Knowledge Of A Risk Assessment

Cited by 6 publications

References 62 publications

Spotlights: A Historical Risk Matrix Paper, VR Lab Safety Training, and a Systematic Approach for Identifying Unknown Assumptions

Spotlights: A Historical Risk Matrix Paper, VR Lab Safety Training, and a Systematic Approach for Identifying Unknown Assumptions

Risk Analysis through the Half-Normal Distribution

On the Relevancy of Systems Thinking in Permanent Plug and Abandonment Regulations in Norway

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