A new fractional mathematical modelling of COVID-19 with the availability of vaccine

Kumar, Pushpendra; Ertürk, Vedat Suat; Murillo‐Arcila, Marina

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104213

Cited by 61 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…This pace, even assuming coverage rates >20%, makes it difficult to achieve herd immunity fast enough to prevent infections, severe cases, and deaths in older adults without direct targeting. These results are consistent with other recent models on COVID-19 vaccine impact [3,4,39,40].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Rural prioritization may increase the impact of COVID-19 vaccines in a representative COVAX AMC country setting due to ongoing internal migration: A modeling study

Selvaraj

Wagner

Chao

et al. 2022

PLOS Glob Public Health

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How COVID-19 vaccine is distributed within low- and middle-income countries has received little attention outside of equity or logistical concerns but may ultimately affect campaign impact in terms of infections, severe cases, or deaths averted. In this study we examined whether subnational (urban-rural) prioritization may affect the cumulative two-year impact on disease transmission and burden of a vaccination campaign using an agent-based model of COVID-19 in a representative COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Advanced Market Commitment (AMC) setting. We simulated a range of vaccination strategies that differed by urban-rural prioritization, age group prioritization, timing of introduction, and final coverage level. Urban prioritization averted more infections in only a narrow set of scenarios, when internal migration rates were low and vaccination was started by day 30 of an outbreak. Rural prioritization was the optimal strategy for all other scenarios, e.g., with higher internal migration rates or later start dates, due to the presence of a large immunological naive rural population. Among other factors, timing of the vaccination campaign was important to determining maximum impact, and delays as short as 30 days prevented larger campaigns from having the same impact as smaller campaigns that began earlier. The optimal age group for prioritization depended on choice of metric, as prioritizing older adults consistently averted more deaths across all of the scenarios. While guidelines exist for these latter factors, urban-rural allocation is an orthogonal factor that we predict to affect impact and warrants consideration as countries plan the scale-up of their vaccination campaigns.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Rural prioritization may increase the impact of COVID-19 vaccines in a representative COVAX AMC country setting due to ongoing internal migration: A modeling study

Selvaraj

Wagner

Chao

et al. 2022

PLOS Glob Public Health

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“…Mathematical simulation is a desirable approach to gain insight into the effect of vaccination on the infectious spread. COVID-19 country-based simulations (Malaysia [8], Saudi Arabia [9], Spain [10], United States [11], and others) have already been reported. A fast simulation method of differential equations is a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccination (SIRV) model [12][13][14][15][16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Theoretical Analysis of SIRVVD Model to Provide Insight on the Target Rate of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Japan

Omae,

Sasaki,

Toyotani

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The effectiveness of the first and second dose vaccinations are different for COVID-19; therefore, a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccination1-vaccination2-death (SIRVVD) model that can represent the states of the first and second vaccination doses has been proposed. By the previous study, we can carry out simulating the spread of infectious disease considering the effects of the first and second doses of the vaccination based on the SIRVVD model. However, theoretical analysis of the SIRVVD Model is insufficient. Therefore, we obtained an analytical expression of the infectious number, by treating the numbers of susceptible persons and vaccinated persons as parameters. We used the solution to determine the target rate of the vaccination for decreasing the infection numbers of the COVID-19 Delta variant (B.1.617) in Japan. Further, we investigated the target vaccination rates for cases with strong or weak variants by comparison with the COVID-19 Delta variant (B.1.617). This study contributes to the mathematical development of the SIRVVD model and provides insight into the target rate of the vaccination to decrease the number of infections.

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“…Sene et al [ 23 ] has analyzed a four-dimensional hyperchaotic system in the sense of Caputo-type fractional derivative. A clear role of vaccine in the Covid-19 epidemic can be learned by using a fractional-order SEIR model from [ 24 ]. In [ 25 ] the authors explored the dynamics of the mosaic disease via a nonclassical mathematical model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A delayed plant disease model with Caputo fractional derivatives

Kumar¹,

Băleanu

Ertürk

et al. 2022

Adv Cont Discr Mod

Self Cite

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We analyze a time-delay Caputo-type fractional mathematical model containing the infection rate of Beddington–DeAngelis functional response to study the structure of a vector-borne plant epidemic. We prove the unique global solution existence for the given delay mathematical model by using fixed point results. We use the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton P-C algorithm for solving the given dynamical model. We give a number of graphical interpretations of the proposed solution. A number of novel results are demonstrated from the given practical and theoretical observations. By using 3-D plots we observe the variations in the flatness of our plots when the fractional order varies. The role of time delay on the proposed plant disease dynamics and the effects of infection rate in the population of susceptible and infectious classes are investigated. The main motivation of this research study is examining the dynamics of the vector-borne epidemic in the sense of fractional derivatives under memory effects. This study is an example of how the fractional derivatives are useful in plant epidemiology. The application of Caputo derivative with equal dimensionality includes the memory in the model, which is the main novelty of this study.

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A new fractional mathematical modelling of COVID-19 with the availability of vaccine

Cited by 61 publications

References 29 publications

Rural prioritization may increase the impact of COVID-19 vaccines in a representative COVAX AMC country setting due to ongoing internal migration: A modeling study

Rural prioritization may increase the impact of COVID-19 vaccines in a representative COVAX AMC country setting due to ongoing internal migration: A modeling study

Theoretical Analysis of SIRVVD Model to Provide Insight on the Target Rate of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Japan

A delayed plant disease model with Caputo fractional derivatives

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