A New Data Driven Long-Term Solar Yield Analysis Model of Photovoltaic Power Plants

Abstract

Historical data offers a wealth of knowledge to the users. However, often restrictively mammoth that the information cannot be fully extracted, synthesized, and analyzed efficiently for an application such as the forecasting of variable generator outputs. Moreover, the accuracy of the prediction method is vital. Therefore, a trade-off between accuracy and efficacy is required for the data-driven energy forecasting method. It has been identified that the hybrid approach may outperform the individual technique in minimizing the error while challenging to synthesize. A hybrid deep learning-based method is proposed for the output prediction of the solar photovoltaic systems (i.e. proposed PV system) in Australia to obtain the trade-off between accuracy and efficacy. The historical dataset from 1990-2013 in Australian locations (e.g. North Queensland) are used to train the model. The model is developed using the combination of multivariate long and short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed hybrid deep learning (LSTM-CNN) is compared with the existing neural network ensemble (NNE), random forest, statistical analysis, and artificial neural network (ANN) based techniques to assess the performance. The proposed model could be useful for generation planning and reserve estimation in power systems with high penetration of solar photovoltaics (PVs) or other renewable energy sources (RESs). INDEX TERMS Accuracy, convolutional neural network, data-driven model, deep learning, forecasting, multivariate long and short-term memory, reliability, solar photovoltaic power plants.

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“…The training and test data sets are sorted by sequence length by specifying the sequence length to be 'longest' and mini-batch size to 27. The configuration model [51] of LSTM framework is shown in Fig. 10.…”

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