A New Approximate Method for Quantifying Tsunami Maximum Inundation Height Probability

Glimsdal, Sylfest; Løvholt, Finn; Harbitz, C. B.; Romano, Fabrizio; Lorito, Stefano; Orefice, Simone; Brizuela, Beatriz; Selva, Jacopo; Hoechner, A.; Volpe, Manuela; Babeyko, Andrey; Tonini, Roberto; Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid

doi:10.1007/s00024-019-02091-w

Cited by 39 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(36 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This MIH distribution is generally well approximated by a lognormal distribution (see also Davies et al 2017). Glimsdal et al (2019) estimated the amplification factors as a function of the offshore wave period and polarity for the TSUMAPS-NEAM POIs in the Mediterranean. They also took into account the coastal bathymetry around each POI.…”

Section: Mean Annual Rates Of Tsunami Hazard Intensitymentioning

confidence: 89%

“…As discussed by Løvholt et al (2013), the amplification factor method gives exact estimates for the MIH under the special condition of non-breaking plane waves, but this method also assumes incident plane waves and hence neglects local effects such as focusing and refraction. It was recently shown that the amplification factor applied to the offshore value at the POI provides a good and almost unbiased estimator of the median of the whole MIH distribution for a set of onshore transects over a coastline stretch of a few kilometers behind the POI (Glimsdal et al 2019). This MIH distribution is generally well approximated by a lognormal distribution (see also Davies et al 2017).…”

Section: Mean Annual Rates Of Tsunami Hazard Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We also point out that dispersion of the residuals of the linear combinations with respect to directly simulated mareograms (Molinari et al 2016) is addressed by an error propagation technique, within the Glimsdal et al (2019) scheme described here below. Further, and finally, we need to convey simulated offshore tsunami heights into amplified heights at the coastline using approximated amplification factors (Løvholt et al 2013(Løvholt et al , 2015Glimsdal et al 2019). For a specific point on the coastline, the amplified height acts as a proxy for the Maximum Inundation Height (MIH) on the coast beyond.…”

Section: Mean Annual Rates Of Tsunami Hazard Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models

Scala

Lorito

Romano

et al. 2019

Pure Appl. Geophys.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k-2 stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model * 150,000 earthquakes with M w from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depthindependent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world.

show abstract

Section: Mean Annual Rates Of Tsunami Hazard Intensitymentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Mean Annual Rates Of Tsunami Hazard Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mean Annual Rates Of Tsunami Hazard Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models

Scala

Lorito

Romano

et al. 2019

Pure Appl. Geophys.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The suggested formula, which gives the best fit with the data of numerical simulations in general is      These results can also be used in tsunami forecast. Sometimes, in order to save time for tsunami forecast, especially for long distance wave propagation, the tsunami run-up height is not simulated directly, but estimated using analytical or empirical formulas (Glimsdal et al 2019;Løvholt et al 2012). In these cases we recommend using formulas, which take into account the face front wave steepness.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions

Abdalazeez¹,

Didenkulova²,

Dutykh³

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The estimate of individual wave run-up is especially important for tsunami warning and risk assessment as it allows to evaluate the inundation area. Here as a model of tsunami we use the long single wave of positive polarity. The period of such wave is rather long which makes it different from the famous Korteweg-de Vries soliton. This wave nonlinearly deforms during its propagation in the ocean, what results in a steep wave front formation. Situations, when waves approach the coast with a steep front are often observed during large tsunamis, e.g. 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. Here we study the nonlinear deformation and run-up of long single waves of positive polarity in the conjoined water basin, which consists of the constant depth section and a plane beach. The work is performed numerically and analytically in the framework of the nonlinear shallow water theory. Analytically, wave propagation along the constant depth section and its run-up on a beach are considered independently without taking into account wave interaction with the toe of the bottom slope. The propagation along the bottom of constant depth is described by Riemann wave, while the waverun-up on a plane beach is calculated using rigorous analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow water theory following the Carrier-Greenspan approach. Numerically, we use the finite volume method with the second order UNO2 reconstruction in space and the third order Runge-Kutta scheme with locally adaptive time steps. During wave propagation along the constant depth section, the wave becomes asymmetric with a steep wave front. Shown, that the maximum run-up height depends on the front steepness of the incoming wave approaching the toe of the bottom slope. The corresponding formula for maximum run-up height, which takes into account the wave front steepness, is proposed.

show abstract

“…The numerical technique to simulate the wave run-up was described previously in Dutykh et al (2011a). The bathymetry source term is discretized using the hydrostatic reconstruction technique, which implies the well-balanced property of the numerical scheme (Gosse, 2013).…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions

Abdalazeez

Didenkulova

Dutykh

2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The estimate of an individual wave run-up is especially important for tsunami warning and risk assessment, as it allows for evaluating the inundation area. Here, as a model of tsunamis, we use the long single wave of positive polarity. The period of such a wave is rather long, which makes it different from the famous Korteweg–de Vries soliton. This wave nonlinearly deforms during its propagation in the ocean, which results in a steep wave front formation. Situations in which waves approach the coast with a steep front are often observed during large tsunamis, e.g. the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. Here we study the nonlinear deformation and run-up of long single waves of positive polarity in the conjoined water basin, which consists of the constant depth section and a plane beach. The work is performed numerically and analytically in the framework of the nonlinear shallow-water theory. Analytically, wave propagation along the constant depth section and its run up on a beach are considered independently without taking into account wave interaction with the toe of the bottom slope. The propagation along the bottom of constant depth is described by the Riemann wave, while the wave run-up on a plane beach is calculated using rigorous analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow-water theory following the Carrier–Greenspan approach. Numerically, we use the finite-volume method with the second-order UNO2 reconstruction in space and the third-order Runge–Kutta scheme with locally adaptive time steps. During wave propagation along the constant depth section, the wave becomes asymmetric with a steep wave front. It is shown that the maximum run-up height depends on the front steepness of the incoming wave approaching the toe of the bottom slope. The corresponding formula for maximum run-up height, which takes into account the wave front steepness, is proposed.

show abstract

A New Approximate Method for Quantifying Tsunami Maximum Inundation Height Probability

Cited by 39 publications

References 27 publications

Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models

Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About