A new approach to earthquake prediction: The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) theory

Yin, Xingyao; Chen, Xuezhong; Song, Zilin; Yin, Chuancun

doi:10.1007/bf00879596

Cited by 112 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…In practice, this method typically involves calculating the ratio of Benioff strain release during periods of loading and unloading as determined by calculating earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Criterion on optimally oriented faults. In retrospective studies, high LURR values have been observed months to years prior to most events and intermediate-term earthquake predictions have been made (YIN et al, 1995(YIN et al, , 2000.…”

Section: Relation Between Amr and Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…How many regions where AMR is seen are exhibiting false alarms, with no following large event? Since both AMR and LURR have been proposed as indicators that the crust within a region of study is approaching a critical state, we are also interested in the relation between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) (YIN et al, 1995(YIN et al, , 2000(YIN et al, , 2002, for example, do AMR and LURR predict a similar time, magnitude and critical region size prior to a large earthquake?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

Wang

Yin

Móra

et al. 2004

Computational Earthquake Science Part II

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-The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and LoadUnload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

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Section: Relation Between Amr and Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

Wang

Yin

Móra

et al. 2004

Computational Earthquake Science Part II

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“…In previous years, a series of successful intermediate-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes in China and other countries using the LURR parameter (YIN and YIN, 1991;YIN, 1993;YIN et al, 1994YIN et al, , 1995YIN et al, , 1996YIN et al, , 2000YIN et al, , 2002. Usually the released seismic energy is adopted as the ''response'' after which the LURR is defined as:…”

Section: Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…YIN and YIN (1991), YIN (1993), YIN et al (1994YIN et al ( , 1995YIN et al ( , 2000YIN et al ( , 2002 has proposed another approach, to test for crustal criticality, called the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) which is defined as…”

Section: Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the establishment of criticality the crust must be characterized by both susceptibility to external factors (WEI et al, 2000;XIA et al, 2002) and strong correlation between its different parts. The former will lead to triggering of earthquakes by tidal stress (GRASSO and SORNETTE, 1998) and consequently anomalously high values of LURR (YIN and YIN, 1991;YIN, 1993;YIN et al, 1994YIN et al, , 1995YIN et al, , 1996YIN et al, , 2000YIN et al, , 2002 are observed prior to large earthquakes. The latter will lead to establishment of long-range correlations in the regional stress field (SYKES and JAUME, 1990;RUNDLE et al, 1999;SAMMIS and SMITH, 1999;PLACE, 2000, 2002;WEATHERLEY, 2002) and accelerating seismic activity of moderate-sized earthquakes (ELLSWORTH et al, 1981;KEILIS-BOROK, 1990;SORNETTE and SAMMI;KNOPOFF et al, 1996 andBOWMAN et al, 1998) and equivalently, the accelerating seismic release prior to large earthquakes follows a power-law time-to-failure relation -AMR/AER (BUFE and VARNES, 1993;BOWMAN et al, 1998;JAUME and SYKES, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr), Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (Am/Er) and State Vector Saltation As Precursors To Failure of Rock Specimens

Yin¹,

Yu²,

Kukshenko³

et al. 2004

Computational Earthquake Science Part II

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-In order to verify some precursors such as LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) and AER (Accelerating Energy Release) before large earthquakes or macro-fracture in heterogeneous brittle media, four acoustic emission experiments involving large rock specimens under tri-axial stress, have been conducted. The specimens were loaded in two ways: monotonous or cycling. The experimental results confirm that LURR and AER are precursors of macro-fracture in brittle media. A new measure called the state vector has been proposed to describe the damage evolution of loaded rock specimens.

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A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method

Zhu²

2010

Concurrency and Computation

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SUMMARYPrevious studies indicate that the occurrence of a large earthquake might be predicted by anomalous temporal increase of the load/unload response ratio (LURR), which was often defined as the ratio of Benioff strain of small earthquakes released during loading and unloading time periods, corresponding to earth tide-induced Coulomb failure stress change on optimally oriented faults. The conventional LURR anomalous evaluation usually sets a critical LURR value, above which an earthquake may occur. In this paper a probabilistic approach for the evaluation of earthquake potential based on the LURR method is developed. In the approach, the occurrence probability of a future earthquake is quantitatively evaluated by assessing the confidence level of LURR anomaly associated with its stochastic distribution. As retrospective studies, we apply the approach to investigate the time series of LURR prior to the 50M>6.3 earthquakes that occurred in the Chinese mainland and the 21M>6.0 earthquakes in southern California over the past 30 years, and find high correlation between the confidence level of the LURR anomalies and the occurrence of the large earthquakes. We then depict all the high peaks that appeared in the LURR time series, and evaluate the earthquake occurrence rate as a function of the confidence level. The research results show considerable promise that our probabilistic approach may provide a useful tool to evaluate quantitatively the occurrence possibilities of future earthquakes.

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A new approach to earthquake prediction: The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) theory

Cited by 112 publications

References 15 publications

Spatio-temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

Spatio-temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr), Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (Am/Er) and State Vector Saltation As Precursors To Failure of Rock Specimens

A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method

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