A New Approach For Physically-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis For Portugal

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is nowadays the more complete analysis method to estimate the seismic input for structural analysis. However, it is strongly influenced by seismogenic parameters and attenuation equations. Here PSHA using empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) with 2 + 2 variables is carried out, which are correlated through the moment magnitude. This combination, already known as “physically-based PSHA (pb-PSHA)”, is an original approach that should be disseminated because it provides a good alternative in countries where the seismogenic zones and attenuation equations are not well known. The proposed model is based on linear faults, random, periodic, impulsive, linear source functions, and a punctual hypocentre. Differential equations are explained. Results are shown in terms of new seismic parameters, specific return periods and ground accelerations. The studied country is Portugal. It appears to the authors that no study has been published about pb-PSHA for Portugal.