SUMMARY The incidence and prognosis ofchildhood asthma and wheezing illness (AW) was studied using data obtained at ages 7, 11, and 16 from a national cohort of 8806 children born in 1958. By the age of 16, 24-7% were reported to have experienced at least one episode of AW. In 18-3% AW had started before the age of 8, but only 4-2% continued to have symptoms in later childhood. A further 3-6% began to have AW between the ages of 8 and 11, and 2-8% began between the ages of 12 and 16. Ofthose with AW at age 7, 28 3% had symptoms at 11 and 16 5% at 16; these proportions were about doubled if AW at 7 had been severe. The associations between natural history and a large number of perinatal, social, environmental, and medical factors were examined. Those which predicted the onset of AW after the age of 7 were: male sex ofchild; mother aged 15-19 at child's birth; history of pneumonia, whooping cough, throat or ear infections or tonsillectomy; eczema, allergic rhinitis; and periodic vomiting or abdominal pain.To understand the natural history of asthma, a description of both its incidence and prognosis is required. Prevalence rates obtained by cross-sectional population studies reflect only the net effect of incidence and prognosis, and those relying on retrospective assessments have the additional problem ofinadequate and selective recall. With one exception' previously reported cohort studies have been essentially follow up studies designed only to study prognosis since only subjects with asthma were seen subsequently.2-5The National Child Development Study,6 which originated in the National Perinatal Study,7 has followed up at ages 7, 11, and 16 nearly every child in England, Scotland, and Wales born in one week of March 1958. Data, which were collected by parent interview and physical examination of the child, comprised a wide variety of perinatal, medical, social, behavioural, and educational variables. Since the study was not designed to investigate the natural history of asthma there were, not unexpectedly, shortcomings in the assessment of both asthma and the range of aetiological factors. Nevertheless the size and representativeness of this national cohort offer a unique opportunity to examine the natural history of asthma and wheezing illness.
MethodsInformation about current and past asthma or wheezing was obtained as part of a structured questionnaire on medical and other topics administered to parents by health visitors. Data for all three interviews (at ages 7, 1 1, and 16) were obtained for 8806 of the original cohort of 17419 births comprising the 1958 Births Survey (98% ofall births in that week). Most ofthe analysis in this paper relates to the 8806 children with complete data, but, as we shall show, there was no evidence of a difference in asthma and wheeze between these children and those for whom data were incomplete.The form of the questions on asthma or wheezing differed at each age. At age 7, parents were asked whether their child had ever had "attacks of asthma," and the same question was repe...