A Multisource Uncertainty Fusion Reliability Evaluation Method for the Control Rod Drive Mechanism of Nuclear Power Plants

Abstract

The reliability of a pressurized water reactor power plant’s control rod drive mechanism (CRDM) is affected by many factors, such as operation states, unit performance, and dynamic environments. Multiple sources of uncertainties, including random, interval, and fuzzy, exist when analyzing the reliability of CRDMs. Modeling reliability without considering the fusion of multisource uncertainties may result in model distortion and may not provide realistic assessment results. This paper proposes a multisource uncertainty fusion method powered by the margin-based variable transformation and the Bayesian network propagation. The interval and fuzzy variables are transformed into random variables to obtain the corresponding generalized probability density function of the CRDM’s feature parameters. After that, the CRDM’s reliability can be evaluated via probability quantization of the Bayesian network inference result through sampling algorithms. A magnetic-jack type CRDM case is presented to verify the proposed method, and the results show that this method can fuse three types of uncertainty variable in a unified way and effectively obtain reliability evaluation results.