A multiple-paradigm system for rangeland pest management

Abstract

Polycultural agroecosystems, such as rangelands, are too complex and poorly understood to permit precise numerical simulation. Management decisions that depend on behavioral predictions of such ecosystems therefore require a variety of knowledge sources and reasoning techniques. Our approach to designing a computer system that provides advice concerning such ecosystems is to incorporate various reasoning paradigms and apply whatever paradigm is most appropriate to each task arising in the advice process. This approach is based on a particular process description of expert human problem solving that uses four different reasoning paradigms: model-based reasoning; case-based reasoning; rule-based reasoning; and statistical reasoning. The process description is implemented in CARMA, a computer system for advising ranchers about the best response to rangeland grasshopper infestations. CARMA attempts to emulate the human ability to integrate multiple knowledge sources and reasoning techniques in a flexible and opportunistic fashion. The goal of this approach is to enable computer systems to optimize the use of the diverse and incomplete knowledge sources and to produce patterns of reasoning that resemble those of human decision-makers.

A Review of the Nursing Paradigm

“…In accordance with Kuhn's view, the profile of a mature science is characterized by the followings: 1) Acceptance by the scientific community as a paradigm; 2) Approach to solving the discipline problems, which have been caused by the paradigm; 3) Presence of the knowledge as research articles in scientific journals rather than books; 4) Development of an obscure and unfamiliar language; 5) A leading paradigm has the most important criteria. Using these criteria, as nursing science has several broad paradigms and its scientific community has not still accepted one of them, one can say it is in the pre-paradigm stage [24]. The nurses indicate the Cohen needs to share the values as the same language in nursing journals, which is developing its own language; then, it is in the pre-paradigm stage.…”

“…He believes that because of the importance and ease of multiple paradigm, it is appropriate to use it in practice [24].…”

Reduced agent-area treatments (RAAT) for management of rangeland grasshoppers: Efficacy and economics under operational conditions

“…CARMA, a grasshopper management model designed specifically for Wyoming (Hastings et al, 1996), is a multiple paradigm system that produces a range of expected returns (bracketing the worst-and best-case scenarios given unpredictable weather and biotic factors).…”

“…Given the average rates of control at 14 days post-treatment (which are similar to those at 7±28 days), the standard blanket application of carbaryl yielded economic losses relative to inaction, with a benefit:cost ratio less than 1.0. However, the best-case outcome with carbaryl (±$1.09/ha) was superior to the best-case consequence of not treating (±$2.47/ha), which reflects differences in the assumptions, structure, and factors used in models used to generate the benefit:cost ratios (HOPPER [Berry et al, 1996]) and the range of outcomes (CARMA [Hastings et al, 1996]). A blanket application of malathion fared marginally better than carbaryl, with the possibility of absolute profitability under best-case conditions ($1.88/ha) and a benefit:cost ratio slightly above 1.0.…”

Early Assessment of an Approach to Determining the Predictive Coverage of Case-Based Reasoning with Adaptation through CARMA

“…CARMA employs a variety of artificially-intelligent (AI) techniques to provide advice about the most environmentally and economically effective responses to grasshopper infestations. In the process, CARMA illustrates an approach to providing advice concerning the behavior of a complex biological system by leveraging multiple, individually incomplete, knowledge sources ( [7]) including the introduction of a technique known as approximate-modelbased adaptation 1 which integrates case-based reasoning (CBR) ( [1,14]) with model-based reasoning (MBR) for the purpose of prediction within complex physical systems.…”