A multiobjective Markov chain Monte Carlo approach for history matching and uncertainty quantification

Olalotiti-Lawal, Feyi; Datta‐Gupta, Akhil

doi:10.1016/j.petrol.2018.03.062

Cited by 23 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…This burn-in process ensures a misfit convergence with fluctuations of less than 10% from the optimal model. The randomness of the initial model can significantly influence the MCMC convergence, with an unfortunate draw potentially trapping a chain in a local minimum (Olalotiti-Lawal & Datta-Gupta, 2018;Ray et al, 2013). Therefore, we remove the least-performing 75% of chains, retaining the best-fitting 48 of all 192 chains to reflect the primary posterior probability features.…”

Section: Seismic Multi-centroid Moment Tensor Inversionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid earthquake-tsunami modeling: The multi-event, multi-segment complexity of the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake governs tsunami generation

Kutschera,

Jia,

Oryan

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The January 1st, 2024, moment magnitude (Mw) 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging timely analysis of the tsunami generation. We present rapid and accurate tsunami models informed by a 6-subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model that we obtain by inverting teleseismic and strong motion data and validation against geodetic observations. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes, including six subevents and a re-nucleation episode at its hypocenter 20 seconds after its initiation, likely aided by fault weakening. We construct a complex uplift model that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. Our tsunami simulation can explain wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Analyzing a 2000 multi-CMT solution ensemble and comparing to alternative rapid source models, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations.

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Section: Seismic Multi-centroid Moment Tensor Inversionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid earthquake-tsunami modeling: The multi-event, multi-segment complexity of the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake governs tsunami generation

Kutschera,

Jia,

Oryan

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Besides, the optimal dosing schemes can be designed by reparameterizing the control process, which handles nonlinear relationships between variables in the model [17]. Also, reparameterization allows simultaneous optimization of multiple control objectives in control design by effectively incorporating various performance criteria, cost functions, or constraints [18,19]. This capability facilitates trade-off analysis and the design of control strategies that achieve a balance between conflicting objectives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reparameterized Multiobjective Control of BCG Immunotherapy

Yue¹,

Dutta²

2023

Preprint

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Bladder cancer is a cancerous disease that mainly affects elder men and women. The immunotherapy that uses Bacillus of Calmette and Guerin (BCG) effectively treats bladder cancer by stimulating the immune response of patients. The therapeutic performance of BCG relies on drug dosing, and the design of an optimal BCG regimen is an open question. In this study, we propose the Reparameterized Multiobjective Control (RMC) approach for seeking an optimal drug dosing regimen and apply it to the design of BCG treatment. This approach utilizes constrained optimization based on a nonlinear bladder cancer model with impulsive drug instillation. We compare the performance of RMC with Koopman Model Predictive Control (MPC) and validate the efficacy of optimal BCG dosing regimens through numerical simulations, demonstrating the efficient elimination of cancerous cells. The proposed control framework holds the potential for generalization to other model-based treatment designs.

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“…Besides, the optimal dosing schemes can be designed by reparameterizing the control process, which handles nonlinear relationships between variables in the model 24 . Also, reparameterization allows simultaneous optimization of multiple control objectives in control design by effectively incorporating various performance criteria, cost functions, or constraints 25 , 26 . This capability facilitates trade-off analysis and the design of control strategies that achieve a balance between conflicting objectives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reparameterized multiobjective control of BCG immunotherapy

Yue,

Dutta

2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bladder cancer is a cancerous disease that mainly affects elder men and women. The immunotherapy that uses Bacillus of Calmette and Guerin (BCG) effectively treats bladder cancer by stimulating the immune response of patients. The therapeutic performance of BCG relies on drug dosing, and the design of an optimal BCG regimen is an open question. In this study, we propose the reparameterized multiobjective control (RMC) approach for seeking an optimal drug dosing regimen and apply it to the design of BCG treatment. This approach utilizes constrained optimization based on a nonlinear bladder cancer model with impulsive drug instillation. We compare the performance of RMC with Koopman model predictive control (MPC) and validate the efficacy of optimal BCG dosing regimens through numerical simulations, demonstrating the efficient elimination of cancerous cells. The proposed control framework holds the potential for generalization to other model-based treatment designs.

show abstract

A multiobjective Markov chain Monte Carlo approach for history matching and uncertainty quantification

Cited by 23 publications

References 29 publications

Rapid earthquake-tsunami modeling: The multi-event, multi-segment complexity of the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake governs tsunami generation

Rapid earthquake-tsunami modeling: The multi-event, multi-segment complexity of the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake governs tsunami generation

Reparameterized Multiobjective Control of BCG Immunotherapy

Reparameterized multiobjective control of BCG immunotherapy

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