A Multinomial Model of Fertility Choice and Offspring Sex Ratios in India

Abstract

We use the fertility histories of over 70,000 Indian women from the Third National Family and Health Survey to investigate the relationship between family size and offspring sex ratios in India. We find that families with three or more children exhibit gender equality in offspring sex ratios. In families with one or two children, however, there are less than 800 daughters for every 1000 sons. Thus, we find an 'intensification' effect�-�namely, a positive correlation between family size and female-male offspring sex ratios. Our results indicate that greater wealth and paternal education may increase parents' access to and affordability of sex-selection technologies, thereby allowing them to choose both the sex of their children as well as a smaller family size.

India's Distorted Sex Ratio

“…Chamarbagwala and Ranger (2010) noted regional variations across India, as well as other patterns. For instance, larger families (≥3 children) had greater gender equality than smaller families.…”

“…Gender discrimination manifesting as increased female mortality, female infanticide, and sex-selective abortion has received considerable attention in recent years. The sex ratio trend in India indicates a growing imbalance, with estimates from the 2011 census indicating approximately seven million fewer girls than expected in the 0-to-6 age group (Bharadwaj & Lakdawala, 2013; Chamarbagwala & Ranger, 2010; Jha et al, 2011; Sahni et al, 2008). …”

Socioeconomic development and fertility trends among the states of India

“…Charmabagwala (2010) found a positive correlation between family size and offspring sex ratios, suggesting that many families are using sex-selection technologies. Their research also suggests that the more educated and wealthy families have increased access to these technologies, while the demographic transition theory would suggest that the poor and less-educated have a higher need for male children.…”