A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

Ven, Dirk-Jan Van de; Mittal, Shivika; Gambhir, Ajay; Lamboll, Robin; Doukas, Haris; Giarola, Sara; Giarola, Sara; Koasidis, Konstantinos; Köberle, Alexandre C.; McJeon, Haewon; Perdana, Sigit; Peters, Glen P.; Rogelj, Joeri; Sognnæs, Ida; Vielle, Marc; Νίκας, Αλέξανδρος

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

Cited by 33 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(88 reference statements)

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“…[32] Renewables reducing natural gas spikes in integrated markets [33] Electricity storage technologies in long-term decarbonization [34] Capital access constraints in the ammonia industry [35] Multi-model analyses of carbon policy extension [36] Multi-model analyses of post-Glasgow commitments [37]…”

Section: Topic Referencementioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Education: Capacity Building Using the MUSE Model

et al. 2023

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Education for sustainable development has among its pillars, capacity building, which equips future generations with the set of skills needed to face the challenge of the transformation of society for sustainable development. This paper presents a training course for a novel model of long-term energy planning (the ModUlar energy system Simulation Environment, MUSE), as an example of capacity building activities for sustainable development. The activities were part of the Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable development, held in Trieste (Italy) in 2022. This summer school was one of the first successful implementations of education and training courses in a super-hybrid mode in the post-COVID era. Describing the training activities for MUSE open-source, this paper addresses one of the challenges that education for sustainable development is expected to increasingly face in the future: the training of future professionals in the use of novel toolkits and the implementation of truly trans-disciplinary approaches.This paper discusses the pre-school online training course for MUSE, the summer school contents, and some student modeling outcomes. While doing so, it shows the importance of leveraging the abstract contents of a course with practical exercises when learning a new tool. Reflecting upon the students’ experience, this paper draws conclusions that can be used to improve future editions of the same course and be extended to the design of training courses for other tools.

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Section: Topic Referencementioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Education: Capacity Building Using the MUSE Model

et al. 2023

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“…Fossil fuel sources have been the main drivers of several human activities in the past and even in recent years. Ongoing intergovernmental policy targets are trying to optimize energy inputs as an urgent action to reduce reliance on them, but there are several feasibility concerns about the expected outcomes [1]. The rising frequency and intensity of conflicts, climate extremes, and economic shocks, along with escalating inequality, are impeding the decoupling from fossil fuels and the achievement of the global sustainable development goals [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fruit Crop Species with Agrivoltaic Systems: A Critical Review

Magarelli,

Mazzeo,

Ferrara

2024

Agronomy

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As the world seeks alternatives to fossil fuels, agrivoltaics offer a promising solution by integrating solar panels with farming practices. This review examines three key agrivoltaic setups—static tilted, full-sun tracking, and agronomic tracking—dissecting their engineering features’ roles in optimizing both the electricity yield and the fruit productivity of some fruit crops. We emphasize the microclimatic modifications induced by agrivoltaic systems, mainly encompassing changes in solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and wind. The data collected in this survey reveal a strong spatial heterogeneity distribution over different locations and a significant influence on fruit crops’ growth, yield, and quality, with variations among species. Such findings on the overall performance recommend a 30% shading threshold to prevent substantial declines in fruit characteristics, i.e., fruit yield and quality. Shading conditions over this threshold influence the leaf morphophysiological characteristics, impacting the photosynthesis capacity and fruit dry matter accumulation. This emphasizes the importance of further investigation into spectral radiation quality and carbon assimilation kinetics as daily responses for different fruit species to be cultivated in such new environments. Starting from this point, this review underscores the need to extend studies on various fruit crops, particularly those cultivated in semi-arid horticultural regions (i.e., for saving water), and suggests the use of comprehensive and standardized indicators for comparability across studies. Finally, the authors conclude that engineering improvements, along with new research programs on agrivoltaic systems, could lead to agricultural, environmental, and economic sustainability, as well as their practical implementation and attractiveness to farmers in the coming years.

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“…Greater attention has been paid to the climate impacts of CO 2related emission reduction commitments, e.g. [12], while uncertainty in non-CO 2 mitigation contributes to whether climate policy is sufficient to meet international targets [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global methane pledge versus carbon dioxide emission reduction

Cael,

Goodwin

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas whose contribution to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system is second only to carbon dioxide (CO2). CH4 emission reduction has become critical to global climate mitigation policy, resulting most notably in the global methane pledge (GMP), pledging a 30% reduction of CH4 emissions by 2030. Methane is, however, much shorter-lived in the atmosphere than CO2, so emissions reductions may have different impacts on global warming over time. We quantify the difference over time in global annual mean surface temperature of the GMP versus the equivalent amount of CO2 emission reduction. The avoidance of CH4 emissions in the 2020s due to the GMP initially results in greater relative cooling than the avoidance of the equivalent amount of CO2 emissions over the same period, but less relative cooling after ∼2060, when almost all CH4 emitted during the 2020s has been removed from the atmosphere but much of the CO2 emitted during the 2020s remains. However, if the GMP places the world on a lower CH4 emissions trajectory after 2030, this results in a persistently and substantially greater reduction to global warming than the equivalent change in the CO2 emissions trajectory, with a maximum difference of 0.22 ± 0.06 ∘C in 2055 and relative cooling for well over a century. This equates to a large difference in avoided climate change damages if momentum in CH4 emission reduction from the GMP can be sustained after the 2020s. While the greatest reduction in warming is obtained by reducing both CH4 and CO2 emissions, our results underscore the striking global societal benefits of sustained reduction in CH4 emissions.

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A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

Abstract: Extended Data Fig. 3 | Comparison with AR6 scenarios emission ranges. Boxplots of cumulative emission ranges (from 2020 (included) to 2050 and 2100) for all three scenarios in this study, compared with cumulative emissions in c1, c2, c3 and c4 mitigation scenarios from IPCC AR6 database.

Cited by 33 publications

References 59 publications

Sustainability Education: Capacity Building Using the MUSE Model

Sustainability Education: Capacity Building Using the MUSE Model

Fruit Crop Species with Agrivoltaic Systems: A Critical Review

Global methane pledge versus carbon dioxide emission reduction

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