A multilevel analysis of private-vehicle evacuation clearance times along the US Gulf Coast

Abstract

This study uses multilevel regression analysis to examine the effect of social characteristics and the built environment on clearance time under an evacuation scenario. The primary unit of analysis is the US Census tract (N = 1660), nested within 31 incorporated places spanning five US states. The dependent variable is an estimate of clearance time in hours derived using network analysis techniques within a geographic information system. We find that tracts with a more peripheral location, more female residents, a higher proportion of Hispanic residents, and higher median household incomes are associated with higher clearance times, on average. Our research suggests the relationship between suburbanization and clearance time is complex and evolving, mediated by past investments in the built environment and shifting social conditions. In addition to facilitating the evacuation of areas with low access to personal vehicles, urban planners and emergency management officials should also consider how the degree of connectivity in the street network impacts congestion and clearance time.

How demographic developments determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks in rural communities: The linkages between demographic and natural hazards research

“…On one hand, there are scholars who provide us with diverging findings. For instance, Berg and Wilson () found that along the U.S. Gulf Coast, people with higher income are having more problems with evacuation. However, the main reason for their problems is that they are living in more peripheral areas—so it is a very context‐specific situation.…”

“…Further publications focus on differences regarding risk‐related behavior. They argue that women are more likely to have risk averse behavior (Kellens et al, ) and tend to need more time to evacuate (in this case because women are more likely to reside in places that are difficult to evacuate; Berg & Wilson, ), or point to a positive association of female gender with following authority's recommendations in the case of an event (Kyne & Donner, ). However, following their meta‐analysis of hurricane evacuation studies, Huang et al () doubt that there is any significant correlation between female gender and evacuation behavior.…”

Planning for Climate Adaptation

“…Tracts outside of Beltway 8 where the SoVI trend line increased are typically more affluent (e.g., Pasadena, Taylor Lake, Deer Park) underscoring that vulnerability is a multidimensional concept, extending beyond income and poverty (e.g., aged population in Taylor Lake). Further, the finding that tracts located roughly midway between the central city and fringe are where the SoVI trend line increased most frequently highlights the importance of better understanding of vulnerability within suburban areas given that congestion and lower connectivity in more affluent, fringe areas could increase evacuation times during an emergency (Berg and Wilson 2013).…”