A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices

Lima, Daniela C. A.; Bento, Virgílio A.; Lemos, Gil; Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100377

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Firstly, the data for outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation for Seville were analyzed in each defined scenario: (1) the IWEC TMY, which is the base file used by the CCWorldWeatherGen (CCWWG) tool; (2) the 2050 and 2080 scenarios generated by CCWWG (using the HadCM3 climate model); (3) the 2020 climate data that Meteonorm v7 uses as origin; (4) the 2050 and 2080 scenarios generated by Meteonorm v7 (using the HadCM3 climate model); (5) the 2020 climate data that Meteonorm v8 uses as origin; and (6) the 2050 and 2080 scenarios generated by Meteonorm v8 (using the RCP8.5 climate model). In order to clarify the main characteristics of the different weather files applied in simulations, Table 2 is presented.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, a notable increase in heat waves and extreme weather events is expected [3]. This situation will have a special impact on the warmer climates of southern Europe, where extreme temperatures are predicted similar to those of regions of North Africa and the Middle East with an increase in the frequency of tropical nights [4], significantly worsening thermal comfort and affecting future human health [5]. Specifically, in southern Spain, local climate change scenarios estimate that the number of days with temperatures above 35 • C (heat waves) would increase by more than 60 days throughout the 21st century [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(using the HadCM3 climate model);(5) the 2020 climate data that Meteonorm v8 uses a origin; and 6) the 2050 and 2080 scenarios generated by Meteonorm v8 (using the RCP8. climate model).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Do Different Methods for Generating Future Weather Data Affect Building Performance Simulations? A Comparative Analysis of Southern Europe

Escandón,

Calama-González,

Alonso

et al. 2023

Buildings

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Climate change will have a great impact on the hottest climates of southern Europe and the existing residential stock will be extremely vulnerable to these future climatic conditions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to update this building stock considering imminent global warming by applying climatic files that predict future conditions in building performance simulations. This research makes use of the two most applied tools (Meteonorm and CCWorldWeatherGen) for generating future climate hourly datasets for 2050 and 2080 in southern Spain. The results predicted for outdoor and indoor thermal conditions and cooling and heating demands are evaluated for two different scale simulation models: a test cell and a multi-family building located in southern Spain. The main aim of this work is the development of a comparative analysis of the results to highlight their potential differences and raise awareness of the influence of the climate data projection method on the simulation outcome. The results show that the projection method selected for producing future climatic files has relevant effects on the analysis of thermal comfort and energy demand, but it is considerably reduced when an annual evaluation is developed.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How Do Different Methods for Generating Future Weather Data Affect Building Performance Simulations? A Comparative Analysis of Southern Europe

Escandón,

Calama-González,

Alonso

et al. 2023

Buildings

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“…The model weights are calculated based on each model's ability to accurately represent the multi-variable climate of Portugal. As described in detail in Lima et al (2023a), this multi-model approach can be applied to the computation of FWI (Bento et al 2023) and future climate indices (Lima et al 2023b), heatwaves (Cardoso et al 2023), and drought and soil moisture assessment (Soares andLima 2022, Soares et al 2023a). By using this refined multi-variable method to create the ensemble, we mitigate the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling, that allows obtaining more accurate regional climate projections (Brunner et al 2019, Eyring et al 2019.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of fire prevention strategies in a changing climate: an assessment for Portugal

DaCamara,

Bento,

Nunes

et al. 2024

Environ. Res.: Climate

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Climate change poses a formidable strain on societies worldwide, demanding viable and timely adaptation measures to ensure future prosperity while avoiding the impact of more frequent and intense extreme events, like wildfires, that affect all continents and biomes, leaving authorities grappling to respond effectively. Here, we focus on mainland Portugal that is inserted in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot and investigate the impact of different adaptation strategies on wildfire risk. Relying on an ensemble of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, we project Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).Our findings reveal that very energetic fires, with energy release exceeding 1000 MW, may increase up to more than three-fold, depending on the RCP. Even under strong mitigation scenarios, the likelihood of having megafires increases by 1.5-fold. This underscores the need for proactive adaptation regardless of mitigation efforts.We present three different ignition avoidance strategies under different climate change scenarios. For all cases results indicate that a reduction between 20 and 60% is achievable for intense wildfires (above 1000 MW).

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Human comfort analysis for Turkey’s coastal tourism in a changing climate

Bilgin,

Bayindir,

Demiralay

et al. 2023

Theor Appl Climatol

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A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices

Cited by 4 publications

References 56 publications

How Do Different Methods for Generating Future Weather Data Affect Building Performance Simulations? A Comparative Analysis of Southern Europe

How Do Different Methods for Generating Future Weather Data Affect Building Performance Simulations? A Comparative Analysis of Southern Europe

Impacts of fire prevention strategies in a changing climate: an assessment for Portugal

Human comfort analysis for Turkey’s coastal tourism in a changing climate

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