“…To model the stochastic behavior of the microgrid's forecast uncertainties, 100 scenarios are generated with ARMA time series model, based on the procedure delineated in the Figure 1, for each of wind speed, microgrid load, and LMP of PCC. The optimal ARMA model for wind speed is ARMA (12,11), and for microgrid load and PCC's LMP is ARMA (11,11), which are obtained through minimization of error variance based on the mentioned historical data. The 100 scenarios generated for wind speed, PCC's LMP, and microgrid load are shown in Figure 4 The scenarios of each quantity are normalized by dividing to its maximum value.…”