A Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming Approach to Epidemic Resource Allocation with Equity Considerations

Abstract

Existing compartmental models in epidemiology are limited in terms of optimizing the resource allocation to control an epidemic outbreak under disease growth uncertainty. In this study, we address this core limitation by presenting a multi-stage stochastic programming compartmental model, which integrates the uncertain disease progression and resource allocation to control an infectious disease outbreak. The proposed multi-stage stochastic program involves various disease growth scenarios and optimizes the distribution of treatment centers and resources while minimizing the total expected number of new infections and funerals. We define two new equity metrics, namely infection and capacity equity, and explicitly consider equity for allocating treatment funds and facilities over multiple time stages. We also study the multistage value of the stochastic solution (VSS), which demonstrates the superiority of the † Cite as: Yin, X. and Büyüktahtakın İ. E., 2021. A multi-stage stochastic programming approach to epidemic resource allocation with equity considerations. Health Care Management Science, pp. 1-57.