A multi-species modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape

Abstract

A multispecies modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape, Ecological Informatics (2015), doi: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.06.004 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT AbstractAn individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely the improvement of existing habitat, restoration of low quality habitat and creation of new habitat. These strategies were implemented on a landscape typical of fragmentation in the United Kingdom using spatial rules to differentiate between the allocation of strategies adjacent to or away from existing habitat patches. The total area being managed in the landscape was set at realistic levels based on recent habitat management trends.Eight species were parameterised to broadly represent different stage structure, population densities and modes of dispersal. Simulations were initialised with the species occupying 20% of the landscape and run for 100 years. As would be expected for a range of real taxa, range shifting abilities were dramatically different. This translated into large differences in their responses to the adaptation strategies. With conservative (0.5%) estimates of the area prescribed for climate change adaptation, few species display noticeable improvements in their range shifting, demonstrating the need for greater investment in future adaptation.With a larger (1%) prescribed area, greater range shifting improvements were found, although results were still species-specific. It was found that increasing the size of small existing habitat patches was the best way to promote range shifting, and that the creation of new stepping stone features, whilst beneficial to some species, did not have such broad effect across different species.

Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

“…Where the longer term impacts of environmental or landscape change on animal populations are considered, studies rarely treat the landscape as a temporally dynamic system [262,290], instead running separate simulations with and without a prescribed landscape change (e.g. [19,204,291]). We believe that the future of landscape ecological modelling is in moving beyond models of human-environment systems which commonly consider only a unidirectional interaction, (i.e.…”

“…They have been used to address questions at a range of spatial and temporal scales varying from models of home range dynamics and daily movements [200,201] to multi-decadal models of species range shifting [19]. IBMs have also been used extensively to study landscape connectivity: identifying threats to populations [202] and testing the impacts of future scenarios [203,204].…”

“…For smaller numbers of species we can reasonably expect to be able to acquire the data to parameterise this extra complexity. Recent work has used IBMs that incorporate current landscapes to inform the choice between alternative options for landscape management targeting birds in fragmented forests [216] to inform the design of reintroduction or assisted colonisation strategies [257] and to determine how alternative possible management options for UK forests will facilitate the range shifting of species [19]. However, there are a lack of studies that consider how these conservation strategies will fare in the context of dynamically changing landscapes and thus using the IBMs with pattern-based models that provide spatio-temporal projections of landscapes would be a particularly valuable direction to pursue.…”

“…Notable advances have been made across landscape ecology and wider land systems science, and methods and findings continue to improve in sophistication and insight [12][13][14]. One of the greatest contributions of landscape ecological modelling has been informing spatial planning for conservation, where it has offered an important complementary approach to classical metapopulation theory by explicitly incorporating the contribution of the matrix (the environment between the habitat patches) [15][16][17][18][19]. However, this computational approach is not free of challenges.…”

Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio‐ecological systems

“…Few ecological studies have considered temporally dynamic landscapes, and those that have done so have used pre-defined changes in land management and the environment (Bithell et al 2008, Imron et al 2011, Gimona et al 2015, Synes et al 2015, Marshall et al 2018, thus not including feedbacks between ecological and environmental processes (Keith et al 2008, Franklin et al 2014. Few ecological studies have considered temporally dynamic landscapes, and those that have done so have used pre-defined changes in land management and the environment (Bithell et al 2008, Imron et al 2011, Gimona et al 2015, Synes et al 2015, Marshall et al 2018, thus not including feedbacks between ecological and environmental processes (Keith et al 2008, Franklin et al 2014.…”