A multi-perspective examination of heat waves affecting Metro Vancouver: now into the future

Stewart, Ronald E.; Betancourt, Daniel; Davies, James; Harford, Deborah; Klein, Yaheli; Lannigan, R.; Mortsch, Linda; O’Connell, Erin; Tang, Kathy; Whitfield, Paul H.

doi:10.1007/s11069-017-2793-7

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The evolution of this event can be explained by a confluence of meso-and synoptic-scale dynamical features, potentially including antecedent low soil moisture conditions and anomalously high column specific humidity that are a hallmarks of extreme heat in western North America (Stewart et al, 2017;Bumbaco et al, 2013). At the synoptic scale, an omega-block developed over the study area beginning at roughly 00UTC on June 25th centred at ∼125 • W, 52 • N, which then slowly 270 progressed eastward over subsequent days.…”

Section: Meteorological Analysis and Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021

Philip

Kew

Oldenborgh

et al. 2021

Preprint

105

121

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Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific northwest areas of the U.S. and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths, and sharp increases in hospital visits for heat-related illnesses and emergency calls. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate to what extent human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heatwaves in this region. Based on observations and modeling, the occurrence of a heatwave with maximum daily temperatures (TXx) as observed in the area 45° N–52° N, 119° W–123° W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lie far outside the range of historically observed temperatures. This makes it hard to quantify with confidence how rare the event was. In the most realistic statistical analysis, which uses the assumption that the heatwave was a very low probability event that was not caused by new nonlinearities, the event is estimated to be about a 1 in 1000 year event in today’s climate. With this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, an event, defined as daily maximum temperatures (TXx) in the heatwave region, as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change. Also, this heatwave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1 in 1000-year heatwave that at the beginning of the industrial revolution would have been (when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today). Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. It would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in such global warming conditions. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being, and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

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Section: Meteorological Analysis and Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021

Philip

Kew

Oldenborgh

et al. 2021

Preprint

105

121

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Further, we use simulations of the Climate of the 20th Century Plus Project (C20C+), which was designed specifically for event attribution studies (Stone et al, 2019). C20C+ simulations use models of the atmosphere and land with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, similar to the design of AMIP experiments.…”

Section: Model and Experiments Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The evolution of this event can be explained by a confluence of meso-and synoptic-scale dynamical features, potentially including antecedent low-soil-moisture conditions and anomalously high column specific humidity that are hallmarks of extreme heat in western North America (Stewart et al, 2017;Bumbaco et al, 2013). At the synoptic scale, an omega block developed over the study area beginning at roughly 00:00 UTC on 25 June centred at 52 • N, ∼ 125 • W, which then slowly progressed eastward over subsequent days.…”

Section: Meteorological Analysis and Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52∘ N, 119–123∘ W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 ∘C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 ∘C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 ∘C of global warming (0.8 ∘C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

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“…Within a region, there is variability in the types of CCRE that specific communities are vulnerable to, hence high-resolution data mapping inter-community variation can provide guidance in which areas to direct limited resources to. Overall, Vancouver and other cities in Canada would benefit from more mapping of risks [ 39 ]. Accordingly, this study responds to the current local and international calls to assess climate change-related risk factors at the neighbourhood level.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards

Castellani

Forysinski

et al. 2021

Environ Health

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Background Although the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community’s exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard’s impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped. Results Two hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16–49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed – for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region. Conclusions The creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.

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A multi-perspective examination of heat waves affecting Metro Vancouver: now into the future

Cited by 11 publications

References 59 publications

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards

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