A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures

Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Bakker, Pepijn; Braconnot, Pascale; Charbit, S.; Fischer, Nils; Herold, Nicholas; Jungclaus, Johann; Khon, Vyacheslav; Krebs‐Kanzow, Uta; Lohmann, Gerrit; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Park, W.; Pfeiffer, Miriam; Prange, Matthias; Rachmayani, Rima; Renssen, H.; Rosenbloom, Nan; Schneider, Birgit; Stone, E. J.; Takahashi, Kunio; Wei, W.; Yin, Qiuzhen

doi:10.5194/cpd-8-3657-2012

Cited by 38 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The temperature anomalies generally resemble previous Eemian simulations (i.e., the multi-model mean from Lunt et al, 2013) but exhibit larger warming in the Arctic and the North Atlantic region. The largest difference is found in the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea, where our simulated annual mean warming is several degrees higher.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 64%

“…A recent, alternate reconstruction based on isotopic air composition (δ 15 N) from the same ice core yields a very similar estimate of 7-11 K, with 8 K as the most likely estimate (Landais et al, 2016). General circulation models, however, generally simulate a much more limited warming (Braconnot et al, 2012;Lunt et al, 2013;Masson-Delmotte et al, 2013;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2013;Landais et al, 2016), motivating further investigation of the mechanisms behind the Eemian warming in Greenland.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Pedersen¹,

Langen²,

Vinther³

2016

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Insolation changes during the Eemian (the last interglacial period, 129 000-116 000 years before present) resulted in warmer than present conditions in the Arctic region. The NEEM ice core record suggests warming of 8 ± 4 K in northwestern Greenland based on stable water isotopes. Here we use general circulation model experiments to investigate the causes of the Eemian warming in Greenland. Simulations of the atmospheric response to combinations of Eemian insolation and preindustrial oceanic conditions and vice versa are used to disentangle the impacts of the insolation change and the related changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions. The changed oceanic conditions cause warming throughout the year, prolonging the impact of the summertime insolation increase. Consequently, the oceanic conditions cause an annual mean warming of 2 K at the NEEM site, whereas the insolation alone causes an insignificant change. Taking the precipitation changes into account, however, the insolation and oceanic changes cause more comparable increases in the precipitation-weighted temperature, implying that both contributions are important for the ice core record at the NEEM site. The simulated Eemian precipitation-weighted warming of 2.4 K at the NEEM site is low compared to the ice core reconstruction, partially due to missing feedbacks related to ice sheet changes and an extensive sea ice cover. Surface mass balance calculations with an energy balance model further indicate that the combination of temperature and precipitation anomalies leads to potential mass loss in the north and southwestern parts of the ice sheet. The oceanic conditions favor increased accumulation in the southeast, while the insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction. Consequently, the Eemian is not a suitable analogue for future ice sheet changes.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Pedersen¹,

Langen²,

Vinther³

2016

Clim. Past

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“…The climate forcing for ism-lig127k-std will be derived from the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiment lig127k and other (transient) LIG climate simulations (cf. Bakker et al, 2013;Lunt et al, 2013) that will be performed by PMIP4 (OttoBliesner et al, 2016). The proposed experiment builds on past efforts to study Greenland ice-sheet stability and evolution during the LIG and constrain the Greenland contribution to the LIG sea-level highstand (e.g., Robinson et al, 2011;Born and Nisancioglu, 2012;Helsen et al, 2013).…”

Section: Ism-xxx-std Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project -phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheet-climate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

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“…For the LIG period a large number of equilibrium simulations have been analysed (Montoya, 2007;Lunt et al, 2012, and references therein). However, to investigate the evolution of temperatures throughout this period and the timing of maximum warmth (MWT), the transient nature of two of the major forcings, changes in the astronomical configuration and changes in the concentrations of the major greenhouse-gases (GHGs), has to be incorporated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

Bakker¹,

et al. 2013

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Abstract. There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG). This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter temperatures. Secondly, for the Atlantic region, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific, possible changes in the characteristics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are crucial. Thirdly, the presence of remnant continental ice from the preceding glacial has shown to be important when determining the timing of maximum LIG warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the results reveal that changes in the monsoon regime exert a strong control on the evolution of LIG temperatures over parts of Africa and India. By listing these inter-model differences, we provide a starting point for future proxy-data studies and the sensitivity experiments needed to constrain the climate simulations and to further enhance our understanding of the temperature evolution of the LIG period.

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A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures

Cited by 38 publications

References 49 publications

Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

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