A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bosetti, Valentina; Callen, Jessica; Després, Jacques; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F.L.; Meijl, Hans van; Ochi, Yoshimasa; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Andreas; Toko, Kiyoshi; Vuuren, Detlef van

doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

Cited by 194 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Management of supply chains has the potential to reduce vulnerability to price volatility. Consumers in lower income countries are most affected by price volatility, with sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia at highest risk (Fujimori et al, 2019;Regmi & Meade, 2013). However, understanding the stability of food supply is one of the weakest links in global food system research (Wheeler & von Braun, 2013) as instability is driven by a confluence of factors (Headey & Fan, 2008 led to reduced staple food prices for 2 billion people (Timmer, 2009).…”

Section: Practices Based On Value Chain Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which practices co‐deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?

Smith

Calvin

Nkem

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

205

137

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There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO2eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing‐up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.

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Section: Practices Based On Value Chain Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which practices co‐deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?

Smith

Calvin

Nkem

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

205

137

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This overall food security picture based on three dimensions of food security is less optimistic compared to previous studies. These studies only assessed food availability and risk of hunger and find an improvement of food security in most SSP scenarios (Hasegawa et al 2015, Bijl et al 2017, Hasegawa et al 2018, Fujimori et al 2019. The main reason for the difference with the findings of other studies is related to the modelling of agricultural land as our land supply curve implies a limited availability of potential agricultural land (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

How food secure are the green, rocky and middle roads: food security effects in different world development paths

Meijl

Tabeau

Stehfest

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) address food and nutrition security with goal number two. Food and nutrition security is a complicated issue, and understanding its future requires insights into (i) food availability, (ii) food access, (iii) food utilisation, and (iv) food stability. Not all these dimensions are covered by the SDG2 and its indicators. A unique feature of this paper is that it focuses on the first three dimensions of food security in addition to the prevalence of undernourishment (SDG indicator 2.1.1). Here we explore future food security in the absence of dedicated policies, to derive the 'policy gap' for this goal. The internationally agreed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are quantified using a computable general equilibrium model (MAGNET) coupled with an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) that enable a linkage between income and expenditures given segmented labour markets. Based on the three dimensions of food security our results showed a less optimistic outlook than based on previous studies. Food availability is projected to improve in all 5 SSP scenarios, except South Asia in SSP3 due to serious land constraints. As a result, the number of undernourished people decreases in most scenarios, becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. However, undernourishment stays high in SSP4 (550 million people) and increases to over two billion people in SSP3. Food access generally improves due to higher agricultural and nonagricultural wages of unskilled workers. However, due to lock-in effects the wages of unskilled agricultural workers might decline, leading to reduced food access in SSP3, SSP4 and SSP2. The indicator of food utilisation shows food security problems for Sub-Saharan Africa in SSP3 and SSP4. Our results indicate that food security problems remain and that effective policies are needed to achieve food security for all. OPEN ACCESS RECEIVED

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“…The negative effects of stringent land-based climate mitigation on global hunger and food consumption was shown in one recent study to be greater than the equivalent impacts of climate change [107]. Global models agree that targeted policies can help avoid tradeoffs with food pricing [9]. Of particular relevance to the nexus is the deployment of bioenergy since its cultivation may have significant implications for both land and water resources, particularly when coupled with CCS to achieve negative emissions [108,109].…”

Section: Agro-economic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is an urgent need to better understand the impacts and vulnerability of human populations and ecosystems to future socioeconomic and climatic change as well as to identify sustainable strategies for meeting future demands for WEL resources while adapting to environmental challenges.Integrated models of WEL systems are needed to quantify future challenges and to design least-cost policies that leverage feedbacks in the linkages across resource supply and consumption [7]. Models with global-scope are particularly important for capturing the influence of globalization and international trade, which are an increasingly critical aspect in the local pricing of fuel, food and materials [8,9]. National and international policy-makers are mainly using knowledge generated from global models to inform target setting in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation [10], but there is further scope to apply the frameworks to study policy designs for a broader set of targets consistent with the sustainable development agenda [11][12][13].This paper reviews the challenges and opportunities for global models integrating resource management decisions (or solutions) across WEL systems.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?

Johnson

Burek

Byers

et al. 2019

Water

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Increasing human demands for water, energy, food and materials, are expected to accentuate resource supply challenges over the coming decades. Experience suggests that long-term strategies for a single sector could yield both trade-offs and synergies for other sectors. Thus, long-term transition pathways for linked resource systems should be informed using nexus approaches. Global integrated assessment models can represent the synergies and trade-offs inherent in the exploitation of water, energy and land (WEL) resources, including the impacts of international trade and climate policies. In this study, we review the current state-of-the-science in global integrated assessment modeling with an emphasis on how models have incorporated integrated WEL solutions. A large-scale assessment of the relevant literature was performed using online databases and structured keyword search queries. The results point to the following main opportunities for future research and model development: (1) improving the temporal and spatial resolution of economic models for the energy and water sectors;(2) balancing energy and land requirements across sectors; (3) integrated representation of the role of distribution infrastructure in alleviating resource challenges; (4) modeling of solution impacts on downstream environmental quality; (5) improved representation of the implementation challenges stemming from regional financial and institutional capacity; (6) enabling dynamic multi-sectoral vulnerability and adaptation needs assessment; and (7) the development of fully-coupled assessment frameworks based on consistent, scalable, and regionally-transferable platforms. Improved database management and computational power are needed to address many of these modeling challenges at a global-scale. IntroductionWater, energy and land (WEL) represent fundamental resources needed for human survival and are critical for supporting economic development and ecosystem services, such as flood control, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. Socioeconomic and climate trends are rapidly increasing global demands for WEL resources. Based on the "middle-of-the-road" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) scenario in which population reaches about 9 billion in 2050, food demand is projected to increase on average 74% (59-98%) from 2005 to 2050 [1], primary energy supply will increase on average 92% (81-113%) [2], agricultural land is projected to increase on average 5% (3-7%) [3], and global water demand is projected to increase about 50% [4,5]. Meanwhile, WEL resources are regionally constrained for physical or economic reasons and several global "mega-trends", such as climate change, urbanization, and globalization, are expected to have regional impacts that may either exacerbate or alleviate resource constraints and the associated supply challenges [6]. There is an urgent need to better understand the impacts and vulnerability of human populations and ecosystems to future socioeconomic and climatic change as well as to identify sustainable strategies for m...

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A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Cited by 194 publications

References 57 publications

Which practices co‐deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?

Which practices co‐deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?

How food secure are the green, rocky and middle roads: food security effects in different world development paths

Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?

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