A Multi-Model Approach to Forecasting Seasonal Rainfall in Senegal

Siebert, Asher; Ryser, Patric; Ndiaye, Diabel; Diop, Mamadou Lamine; Mbengue, Asse; Sal, Amy; Konte, Oumar; Ndiaye, Ousmane; Trzaska, S.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Hansen, James E.; Singh, Bohar; Cousin, Rémi; Faniriantsoa, Rija

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4092901

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“…ANACIM's onset definition is based on previous studies for the Western Sahel region, including Sivarkumar [22,31] and Marteau et al [15]. Currently they define the agronomic onset as the first wet day of one or three consecutive days receiving at least 15 or 20 mm of rain without any 20-day dry spell during the following 30 days, starting from 1 May [27]. The threshold rainfall amount, 15 or 20 mm, is differentiated between the northern and the southern regions, respectively, separated by a straight line connecting Mbour-Diourbel-Matam.…”

Section: Rainfall-based Onset Definitions 221 Anacim's Onset Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Senegal, the National Meteorological Agency (ANACIM) has been working on developing and delivering locally relevant weather and climate information for smallholder farmers in collaboration with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) since 2012 [10]. To provide usable monsoon onset forecasts, ANACIM has developed an agronomic definition of the onset as the first wet day of one or three consecutive days receiving at least 15 to 20 mm of rain without any 20-day dry spell during the following 30 days [27]. In the field, farmers may use their index finger to examine if the soil is wet enough to sow [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating Agronomic Onset Definitions in Senegal through Crop Simulation Modeling

et al. 2022

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Rainfed agriculture in Senegal is heavily affected by weather-related risks, particularly timing of start/end of the rainy season. For climate services in agriculture, the National Meteorological Agency (ANACIM) of Senegal has defined an onset of rainy season based on the rainfall. In the field, however, farmers do not necessarily follow the ANACIM’s onset definition. To close the gap between the parallel efforts by a climate information producer (i.e., ANACIM) and its actual users in agriculture (e.g., farmers), it is desirable to understand how the currently available onset definitions are linked to the yield of specific crops. In this study, we evaluated multiple onset definitions, including rainfall-based and soil-moisture-based ones, in terms of their utility in sorghum production using the DSSAT–Sorghum model. The results show that rainfall-based definitions are highly variable year to year, and their delayed onset estimation could cause missed opportunities for higher yields with earlier planting. Overall, soil-moisture-based onset dates determined by a crop simulation model produced yield distributions closer to the ones by semi-optimal planting dates than the other definitions, except in a relatively wet southern location. The simulated yields, particularly based on the ANACIM’s onset definition, showed statistically significant differences from the semi-optimal yields for a range of percentiles (25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th) and the means of the yield distributions in three locations. The results emphasize that having a good definition and skillful forecasts of onset is critical to improving the management of risks of crop production in Senegal.

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