A multi-hazard approach to assess severe weather-induced major power outage risks in the U.S.

Mukherjee, Sayanti; Nateghi, Roshanak; Hastak, Makarand

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.015

Cited by 137 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…BART algorithm and modeling process. We leveraged a non-parametric Bayesian ensemble-of-trees algorithm to characterize the climate sensitivity of electricity consumption, since the algorithm was shown to outperform other climate-demand nexus models in terms of predictive accuracy 1,14,15,31,38,39 . The independent variables in the development of the BART models were heat stress measures, and the response variable was state-level electricity consumption.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A ccurate predictions of demand are a key challenge in electricity adequacy planning. Climate, technological, and socioeconomic factors are commonly used in predictive models of electricity demand 1,2 to ensure reliable planning and operation in the electricity sector by adequately balancing supply and demand. However, more frequent and intense climate extremes such as sustained heat waves 3,4 cause unanticipated changes in load 5 , challenging the reliability of electricity demand predictions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Comparing the results of the airtemperature-only and selected-features models, we determine the influence of each measure of heat stress on the overall climate sensitivity of demand. The predictive models are developed using a state-of-the-art, stochastic, non-parametric Bayesian ensembleof-trees algorithm 38 (see Methods), which has been shown to outperform other climate-demand nexus models in terms of predictive accuracy 1,14,15,31,39 .…”

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confidence: 99%

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The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

2020

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Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitivity of electricity demand at a national scale. Here we show that in many of the high energy consuming states, such as California and Texas, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10-15% under both present and future climate scenarios. Our results establish that air temperature is a necessary but not sufficient variable for adequately characterizing the climate sensitivity of cooling load, and that near-surface humidity plays an equally important role.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

2020

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“…Energy infrastructure in numerous ways are vulnerable to climate conditions (Schaeffer et al 2012, Cruz and Krausmann 2013, Forrest et al 2018, Mukherjee et al 2018, Tarroja et al 2018. In Europe by the 2080s, for example, an overall climate risk of 8.2 € million/year to energy sector is expected (Forzieri et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall

Moftakhari

AghaKouchak

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Floods and debris flows pose a significant threat, especially when extreme rain falls over burned areas. This is an example of a compound event in which two concurrent or consecutive events lead to extreme societal impacts. Compound and cascading hazards are becoming increasingly important and have notable impacts on threatened communities across the world. Wildfire followed by an intense precipitation event can result in a large flood under which the combined impacts of hazard drivers are much more intense than those from individual drivers. Here, we first quantify the change in exposure of natural gas infrastructure to individual hazards, wildfire and floods in the future relative to past. We, then quantify the compound hazards as coincidence likelihood of intense rain over burned areas and analyze the spatial patterns across the State of California, USA. Our results show that not only the exposure of natural gas infrastructure to individual hazards would be higher, the likelihood of compound hazards is expected to increase substantially in a warming climate.

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“…But this system is vulnerable to disasters caused by wind-related events such as tornados and hurricanes, which frequently incurs power outages. Extreme weather events and climate change are the two most significant causes of power outages in various parts of the world (Mukherjee et al 2018). As the intensity of the two causes has increased, power outages due to these causes have also significantly increased (Kenward and Raja 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Measuring the Resilience of Utility Poles of an Electric Power Distribution Network

Alam

Tokgoz

Hwang

2019

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The utility poles of an electric power distribution system are frequently damaged by wind-related disasters. This study notes that the wooden poles are particularly vulnerable to such disasters and the failures of the poles can cause a network-level failure leading to short-or longterm power outages. To mitigate the problem, this study proposes a framework for measuring the resilience of the wooden utility poles based on the angular deflection of a pole due to the wind force. Given the existing inclination angle of a pole, the angular deflection is measured by finite element analysis using ANSYS Ò Workbench 1 to determine the resilience area under various wind speeds. For this, the conditions of load and support for a pole, which are called boundary conditions in ANSYS Ò , are generated. The proposed framework also includes an approach to cost-benefit analysis that compares different strategies for corrective action. The results of the case study in which the framework was applied show that the proposed framework can be effectively utilized by electric power distribution companies to increase the resilience of their systems.

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A multi-hazard approach to assess severe weather-induced major power outage risks in the U.S.

Cited by 137 publications

References 52 publications

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall

Framework for Measuring the Resilience of Utility Poles of an Electric Power Distribution Network

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