A multi-country analysis of transnational tobacco companies’ market share

Abstract

INTRODUCTION The international tobacco market is dominated by five transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) which continue to interfere with measures to reduce tobacco consumption. The aim of this study is to better understand the current international tobacco industry market structure by providing an overview of the market share of these five companies globally. METHODS A longitudinal multi-country study design was used to understand market share trends across 90 different countries from 2011 to 2020. Descriptive analyses were conducted based on market share and market size data obtained from Euromonitor Passport. Market share (%), maximal market share (%) and cumulative market share (%) were calculated. Maps and boxplots are used to present the descriptive analyses. Median cumulative TTC market share and interquartile ranges for each year were calculated and stratified by country income level. RESULTS The average maximal market share of one company in a country was 50% (IQR: 40.0–63.5) in 2020 compared to 51.5% in 2011 (IQR: 41.3–69.0). One of the five TTCs had the highest market share in 77 out of the 90 countries. Philip Morris International was the main market player in 38 countries, followed by British American Tobacco (24), Japan Tobacco International (8), Imperial Brands (6), and lastly China National Tobacco Corporation was only dominant in China. The percentage of cigarettes manufactured by one of the five TTCs remained relatively stable between 2011 (86.4%) and 2020 (85.2%). Average cumulative TTC market shares increased between 2011 and 2020 in both low- and middle-, and high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS The international tobacco market is concentrated with a small number of large players, and this has not changed substantially between 2011 and 2020. The impact of this on the ability of the tobacco industry to resist policy changes is unknown but presents a cause for concern.

Analysis of Philip Morris International’s ‘aspirational’ target for its 2025 cigarette shipments

“…China is excluded, as the cigarette market in China, although large in a global context (approximately 47% of all cigarette sales in 2022 11 ), is almost entirely dominated by the China National Tobacco Company, and its inclusion is not relevant to the operating environment of transnational tobacco companies such as PMI. 13 Figure 3 shows that global cigarette sales declined at an approximately consistent rate from 2008 to 2020, whereas PMI cigarette shipments have only been declining since 2012 (also see figure 1). The recent slow-down (post-2020) in cigarette sales declines observed in the PMI data is also observed in global sales data, even when excluding PMI sales, suggesting this slow-down is an industry-wide phenomenon.…”