A multi-actor multi-criteria scenario analysis of regional sustainable resource policy

Abstract

The increasing scarcity of natural resources (e.g. forests, energy, agricultural land) prompts the need to develop effective strategies for sustainable development at regional levels with a view to balancing the interests of different groups of actors or stakeholders. This study aims to address the stakeholders' multifaceted viewpoints on future sustainable development, mainly at regional scales. To this end, five experimental test cases -in the form of five different case studies in Europe -are analysed, so as to be able to investigate sustainability, as well as its main stakeholders, in different situations, and to encapsulate different sustainability approaches and different needs for sustainable development. A 'pentagon model' is used to represent systematically five critical aspects of sustainability. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between different objectives (in particular, the viewpoints of different stakeholders) on sustainable development, four distinct scenariosCompetitiveness; Continuity; Capacity; and Coherence -reflecting distinct and relevant images of sustainability are presented. The relative merits of these four scenarios are then empirically assessed by means of a particular type of multicriteria analysis, namely, Regime Analysis. The analysis is carried out by ranking different attributes of sustainable development, i.e. social, economic, ecological, institutional and physical, from the perspective of different stakeholders (distinguished, inter alia, according to gender, education level, occupation, institutional, and geographical background). This study maps out the different attributes of sustainability in relation to the viewpoints of different stakeholders in all five case-study areas. We find that the most preferred sustainable future is the Coherence scenario, in which a combination of ecological and social aspects is the most important determinant.

Environmental Criteria for Assessing the Competitiveness of Public Tenders with the Replacement of Large-Scale LEDs in the Outdoor Lighting of Cities as a Key Element for Sustainable Development: Case Study Applied with PROMETHEE Methodology

“…Such evaluations are typically geared towards simultaneously satisfying private economic goals, broader social objectives and environmental targets. We show that, under specific conditions, a variety of stakeholder-oriented approaches may be able to contribute substantively to the resolution or improved governance of societal conflicts and the pursuit of the public good in the form of sustainable development [67,68].…”

Rethinking on Sustainable Rural Development

“…To answer this call, an important challenge can be seen as to better understand the complexity of systems associated with sustainability and rural areas (Kates et al, 2001;Akgün et al, 2012). It has been proven that there are only a limited number-five-of success factors to explain and understand the complex system (Button, 1998;Capello et al, 1999).…”

“…Scenario analysis/approach is an instrument developed to think about alternative and extreme futures (Akgün et al, 2012). Although there are several techniques to picture futures, scenario analysis is a scientificapproach providing a common framework for diverse stakeholders to address critical concerns and to identify alternatives Gallopin, 2002).…”

Foresights, Scenarios, and Sustainable Development: A Pluriformity Perspective

“…This is known in the literature as the so-called 'pentagon' model. In our empirical study on sustainable development strategies of the five European regions under consideration, we are also able to distinguish five main drivers of sustainable development (see for details Akgün et al 2011). The five 'pentagon factors' identified in our comparative case study approach are:…”