A Monte Carlo simulation method for assessing biotransformation effects on groundwater fuel hydrocarbon plume lengths

McNab, Jr. Walt W.

doi:10.1016/s0098-3004(00)00062-5

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This paper presents a probabilistic modeling that is based on the first-order reliability method (FORM), to predict contaminant risk in groundwater. The traditional probabilistic method, the Monte Carlo simulation method, has been applied for several groundwater flow and transport problems (Bekesi and McConchie 1999;Binkowitz and Wartenberg 2001;Feyen et al 2003;Hamed et al 1995;Huang et al 2003;Lahkim and Garcia 1999;Liu et al 2004;Marseguerra and Zio 2001;McNab 2001;Rong et al 1998; Thornton et al 2001;Wang and McTernan 2002). However, the process may have to be repeated hundreds or even thousands of times to get an acceptable scatter in the ensemble results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability Method Used in Predicting Contaminant Risk in Groundwater Adjacent to Airport

Zhang

Aagaard

Gottschalk

2010

Water Air Soil Pollut

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A reliability approach, first-order reliability method, is used to develop a probabilistic modeling of reactive transport in porous media. The approach is potentially attractive because it can provide both a probability estimate and probabilistic sensitivity measures. In this work, we extend the application of the reliability methods to the probabilistic assessment of contaminant concentration exceeding critical groundwater contamination levels in airport areas following both continuous release and instantaneous injection scenarios. Failure probability is predicted for "no-information" and "partial-information" about the leakage, and compared with deterministic calculations. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the main sources of uncertainty by importance factors, and their changing trends with distance from the leakage were presented.

show abstract