A model selection protocol to support the use of models for water management

Abstract

Models are widely used to assist water managers in their duties, yet there is little advice to help water managers select a model appropriate to their particular application. The advice that is available is specific to either the application type or models considered, focused on one aspect of model application, e.g. goodness-of-fit comparisons between observations and simulations and unrealistic, e.g. in separating model selection from wider aspects of the intended application. This paper proposes a model selection protocol that recognises the particular requirements of the application, the roles of individuals associated with modelling studies, and the importance of establishing an informed dialogue between them. Establishing this common understanding at the outset of any modelling study is highly important in securing a successful outcome to the modelling process.

Modelling in-stream temperature and dissolved oxygen at sub-daily time steps: An application to the River Kennet, UK

“…This prior use may give some confidence in the further use of the model. However, as noted previously (Anderson and Bates, 2001;Boorman et al, 2007;Oreskes et al, 1994) such model applications…”

A Multi-Criteria Model Selection Protocol for Practical Applications to Nutrient Transport at the Catchment Scale

“…However, such analysis goes beyond the scope of the present work. Different from previous works [22,23], our model selection protocol particularly emphasizes the compromise, which has to be met between model complexity and input requirements under limited data availability. Furthermore, we underline that the selection of the most suitable model is also driven by other factors such as user's objectives and an accurate cost-benefit analysis, which could justify integrative sampling campaigns for the characterization of the domain.…”

“…Most of them focus on model intercomparison, either by applying several models in a specific study area [4,16,19] or relying on uncertainty analysis [21]. Some model selection protocols have been described in previous studies [22][23][24], but they mainly focused their selection criteria on the model codes, or on some general and simple guidelines without offering a detailed strategy to approach the problem. In particular, Saloranta et al [22] and Boorman et al [23] aimed at guiding water managers through the selection of a model suitable for applications complying with the European Water Framework Directive (WFD).…”

“…Some model selection protocols have been described in previous studies [22][23][24], but they mainly focused their selection criteria on the model codes, or on some general and simple guidelines without offering a detailed strategy to approach the problem. In particular, Saloranta et al [22] and Boorman et al [23] aimed at guiding water managers through the selection of a model suitable for applications complying with the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). These methods are mainly driven by the necessity for a modeler to discuss with a wide non-specialist public, and by the need to guide the decision of inexperienced user with a simple multi-criteria analysis.…”

Validation of a Model Appropriateness Framework Using the Elbe Decision Support System

“…The availability of complex models as management tools is growing as the power of computers increases. Models are normally selected based on the conditions that they 'best' fit a particular set of data (Forster, 2000;Wasserman, 2000;Boorman, 2007). However, this condition…”