A model of efficiency in diagnostic problem solving: implications for the education of diagnosticians

Abstract

This paper describes a model of efficiency in diagnostic problem solving. It is based on the protocols of three management consultants, who were asked to diagnose a performance problem given to them in the form of a tab-item. They were specifically required to test the maximum number of hypotheses with the minimum number of questions. A bounded rationality model of their judgment was developed, incorporating features of earlier knowledge-based and rule-based approaches. The nature of the diagnostic process is represented as an alternation between knowledge-driven operations on a mental model of the situation, and sensory-driven operations on the problem givens. Insights gained in the former type of episode act as an executive program to direct the search carried out in the latter type of episode. Data generated in the latter type of episode are assimilated into the problem representation constructed in the former type of episode and, by activating existing knowledge structures, generate fresh insights. These in turn direct further search, and so on. Efficiency is achieved both through intuitive leaps which occur in the knowledge-driven episodes, arid by a fixed sequence of logical operations in the sensory-driven episodes. The implications of this model for the education of diagnosticians are discussed.

Scaffolding online argumentation during problem solving

“…an infraction of classroom decorum). Experienced teachers recognize the pattern of symptoms or misbehaviours and make inferences about the nature of the underlying reality (Boreham 1986). They must formulate hypotheses, search for relevant information to support those hypotheses, and interpret data to eliminate unsupported hypotheses (de Mesquita 1992).…”

The tactical use of constraints and structure in diagnostic problem solving

“…Moreover, the branch-and-prune strategy will typically be employed in conjunction with other strategies. Diagnosticians behave opportunistically, adjusting activities within a strategy and changing strategies in response to information and ideas [15,17,25]. This paper contributes a conceptualization of a class of diagnostic heuristics, framed in terms of structure and constraints for the search space.…”

“…The basic idea is often promoted for its efficiency, for instance, in artificial intelligence, where it is known as hierarchical modelbased diagnosis [23]. There is empirical evidence [13,17] that experienced consultants and physicians work according to this strategy, often with the suggestion that this strategy is efficient or prevents diagnostic errors (e.g., "… the failure to employ a top-down refinement strategy (…) may be a critical factor in the failure of subjects to diagnose the cause of the problem." [25]).…”

Protocol Analysis as a Tool for Behavior Analysis

“…For example, Austin (1996) used as the experimental task three extensive business management cases. Because the extent to which participants had previously engaged in thinking aloud was unknown, participants were given practice using (a) a simple multiplication problem, (b) an exercise requiring a detailed description of the windows in the participants' parents' house, and then (c) a case describing a military performance problem (taken from Boreham, 1986).…”