A Model of Corn and Soybean Shipments on the Ohio River

Abstract

This paper estimates the demand for corn and soybean shipments on the Ohio River during the 1992-2004 period. Using monthly data, OLS (with Newewy-West standard errors) parameters estimates were obtained for the explanatory variables. Results indicate that Ohio River corn and soybean shipments are significantly and positively affected by one month lagged shipments, corn and soybean stocks in the Ohio River production region, and corn and soybean exports from lower Mississippi River Gulf ports. Some empirical support was found for a significant negative relationship between Ohio River corn and soybean shipments and ocean shipping freight rates from lower Mississippi River Gulf ports to Japan. Indiana corn prices did not significantly affect Ohio River corn and soybean shipments.

Demand Analysis for Coal on the United States Inland Waterway System: Fully Modified Cointegration (FM-OLS) Approach

“…Another group of studies focuses on transportation rates on the inland waterway system (Harnish and Dunn 1996, Miljkovic et al 2000, Thoma and Wilson 2004b, Yu et al 2007, Babcock and Fuller 2007. For example, Harnish and Dunn (1996) use a reduced-form equation to examine the factors determining grain barge rates on the Mississippi River; they conclude that in the short run, grain exports, coal barge rates, input costs, and distance are the key determinants of barge rates on the Mississippi River.…”

“…Thoma and Wilson (2004b) employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to characterize short-run grain movements on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers; they show that barge rates are significantly determined by lockages and rail rates. Babcock and Fuller (2007) estimate demand for corn and soybean shipment on the Ohio River using OLS; they show that corn and soybean shipments in the region are mainly determined by lagged shipments, corn and soybean stocks, and exports.…”