A Model of Aircraft Retirement and Acquisition Decisions Based On Net Present Value Calculations

Chao, Hsun; Kolencherry, Nithin J.; Ogunsina, Kolawole; Moolchandani, Kushal; Crossley, William A.; DeLaurentis, Daniel A.

doi:10.2514/6.2017-3600

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 6 publications

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“…The predicted usage of these new aircraft drives the fleet-level environmental impacts. Many studies exist that discuss the various studies conducted with FLEET considering only subsonic aircraft operations (Moolchandani et al, 2011;Moolchandani et al, 2012;Moolchandani et al, 2013;Chao, 2016;Chao et al, 2016;Moolchandani et al, 2017;Ogunsina et al, 2017;Ogunsina et al, 2018;Jain et al, 2021a). Recent FLEET studies considering a mixture of supersonic and subsonic commercial aircraft in airline fleet also exist Jain et al, 2021b;Mane et al, 2021).…”

Section: Modeling Tool-fleetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Reduction in Future Fleet-Level CO2 Emissions From Sustainable Aviation Fuel

et al. 2021

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With rising concerns over commercial aviation’s contribution to global carbon emissions, the aviation industry faces tremendous pressure to adopt advanced solutions for reducing its share of CO2 emissions. One near-term potential solution to mitigate this global emissions situation is to operate existing aircraft with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF); this solution requires almost no modification to current aircraft, making it the “quickest” approach to reduce aviation carbon emissions, albeit the actual impact will be determined by the degree to which airlines adopt and use SAF, the ticket price impact of SAF, and the future growth of travel demand. This article presents results that estimate the expected fleet-wide emissions of future airline operations using SAF considering various projected traveler demand and biofuel penetration/utilization levels. The work demonstrates an approach to make these predictions by modeling the behavior of a profit-seeking airline using the Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET). Considering five future SAF scenarios and two future passenger demand projection scenarios, FLEET estimates future fleet-level CO2 emissions, showcasing the possible upper and lower bounds on future aviation emissions when SAF is introduced for use in airline fleets. Results show that the future fleet-level CO2 emissions for all scenarios with SAF are lower than the baseline scenario with no SAF, for all demand projection scenarios. The passenger demand served and the trips flown for a given SAF scenario depends on the SAF price and the biofuel penetration levels. This shows that even if airlines serve a higher passenger demand for some future scenarios, the carbon emissions could still be lower than the current baseline scenario where airlines only use conventional jet fuel.

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