A model for the spread of an epidemic

Abstract

A bstrectA temporally continuous and spatia~ly diacrete stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic within mme set of holdings is constructed. A recursion formula is given for the probability that a certain set of holdings is infected at 8 certain moment. Moreover, under an additional condition (which will always be mtidied i n practice) e formula for the expected value and the variance of the moment when a certain holding is infected the firet time is given.