A Model for Short-Term Institutional Enrollment Forecasting

Abstract

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Ohio State University Pressis collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Higher Education This content downloaded from 150.135.239.97 on Tue, 07 Jun 2016 18:45:19 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms I wish to thank David J. Berg, Colleen T. Davidson, Stephen A. Hoenack, William S. Reece, and two anonymous referees for comments on earlier drafts of this paper. 'Studies of enrollment demand behavior over the past fifteen years have provided estimates of the effects of short-term labor market conditions, financial aid policies, and attendance costs on enrollments. Many of the studies analyzing the effects of costs are reviewed in [8] and [12]. Richard Freeman has produced seminal research on the effects of labor market conditions on attendance, much of which is summarized in [4]. Hoenack and Weiler apply a model of enrollment demand to enrollment forecasting at the University of Minnesota in [6]. William C. Weiler is associate director, Management

A Short‐term Forecasting Procedure for Institution Enrollments

“…The remainder of the table is produced by the same estimation and forecasting procedure as additional (later) actual data points are added to the series. 1980-F 1981-W 1981-Sp 1981-Su 1981-F 1981-W 1982-Sp 1982-Su 1982-F 1983-W 1983-Sp 1983-Su 1983-F 1984-W 1984-Sp 1984-Su 1984-F 1985-W 1985-Sp 1985-Su 1985-F 1986-W 1986-Sp 1986-Su 1986-F 1987-W 1987 C. B. PFTTZNEE step ahead forecasts "track" the actual data very well, though the one-step ahead forecasts are, as expected, more accurate. Careful examination of the three-step ahead forecasts reveals a tendency of the forecast values to persist above or below the actual FTES in consecutive quarters.…”

“…Research on enrollment forecasting generally focuses (with notable exception; see Salley, 1979 andWeiler, 1981) on long-term projection by curve fitting, structural (econometric) modeling, or some combination of these two methods (Armstrong, 1981;Miller & McGill, 1984;Wing, 1974). These procedures, since they are generally based on annual data, are not intended to produce forecasts for the short-term, where the short-term is defined as a forecast horizon of one to four subperiods (quarters, in the case of the VCSS) ahead.…”

Methods and Techniques of Enrollment Forecasting

“…Salley (1979) argues that short-term forecasts often are more important for budgetary purposes than are long-term forecasts and shows how to distinguish the respective influence of cyclical, seasonal, and trend effects. Weiler (1980) too demonstrates a procedure for short-term forecasts, whereas Pope and Evans (1985), Chatman (1986), and Paulsen (1989) all show how to provide regular, updated monthly forecasts of the next term' s enrollment. Pfitzner (1987) explains how to use a Box-Jenkins procedure in doing a short-term enrollment forecast.…”