A model for assessing iceberg hazard

Abstract

With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to shipping and offshore facilities is increasing. The NW Atlantic iceberg hazard has been well monitored by the International Ice Patrol for a century, but many other polar regions have little detailed climatological knowledge of the iceberg risk. Here, we develop a modelling approach to assessing iceberg hazard. This uses the region of the Falklands Plateau and its shipping routes for a case study, but the approach has general geographical applicability and can be used for assessing iceberg hazard for routes or fixed locations. The iceberg risk for a number of locations selected from the main shipping routes in the SW Atlantic is assessed by using an iceberg model, forced by the output from a high-resolution ocean model. The iceberg model was seeded with icebergs around the edge of the modelled region using a number of scenarios for the seeding distribution, based on a combination of idealised, modelled and observed iceberg fluxes from the Southern Ocean. This enabled us to determine measures of iceberg risk linked to a mix of starting location and the likelihood of icebergs being encountered in such a position. For our study area, the main area of iceberg risk is linked to the East Falklands Current, but small, yet nonzero, risk covers much of the east and north of the region.

The history of a cluster of large icebergs on leaving the Weddell Sea pack ice and their impact on the ocean

“…From a climatological perspective, previous iceberg modelling has been shown to lead to reasonable envelope predictions for iceberg presence in both the Southern Hemisphere (Gladstone et al 2001, Martin & Adcroft 2010, Marsh et al 2015, Bigg et al 2018) and Northern Hemisphere (Wilton et al 2015, Marsh et al 2017). Even individual drift tracks can be reproduced in regions where forcing terms are well constrained and icebergs are assumed to be very thin (Bigg et al 2018). Here, we present the first attempt to verify long-term iceberg trajectory modelling by comparing actual and modelled trajectories over timescales of weeks to months.…”

Global Snow- and Ice-Related Disaster Risk: A Review

“…Iceberg disaster records extend from the year 1619, in Svalbard, to the sinking of the Titanic in 1912, to the MS Hans Hedtoft disaster in 1959. Most incidents occurred in the 19th and 20th centuries, with collisions with icebergs steadily increasing with maritime trade, with 26% of incidents resulting in shipwrecks or abandonment (Bigg et al 2018). At times, the grounding of icebergs can lead to the formation of scour and pose a hazard to pipelines and subsea installations (King et al 2003).…”

The Second World Ocean Assessment

“…The broader implications of those decreases on the broader ecosystem and associated fishing grounds, however, are not yet clear. Hydrocarbon exploration has started on the plateau surrounding the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 2 (MacAulay, 2015), although assessment of the associated environmental risks has only just begun and the area lies outside of the Antarctic governance system (Bigg and others, 2018). In the light of the importance of krill as a food source for a growing aquaculture industry, long-term management strategies for that species are beginning to be implemented in the area protected by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), 2019).…”