A model-based evaluation of the efficacy of COVID-19 social distancing, testing and hospital triage policies

McCombs, Audrey; Kadelka, Claus

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008388

Cited by 22 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…These results reinforce the importance of local and international traveling restrictions as a preventive measure to slow the spread of the virus [47], measures still not enforced in Brazil and many other countries. As an alternative, policies such as social distancing and early detection of more pathogenic variants could have curtailed the spread of P.1 and P.2 across states and unburdened the public health system [48][49][50].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To account for the impact of sampling bias across different Brazilian states on the inference of dispersal routes, we have created ten replicates of the previous analyses by resampling the available P.2 (new n = 150) and P.1 (50) genomes weighted by the ratio between the number of cases in each state and number of available genomes in GISAID from each state. Because we only used ingroup sequences, the strict clock model was employed on both datasets to infer their divergence dates.…”

Section: Phylogenetic Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 tracks early interstate transmission of P.1 lineage and diversification within P.2 clade in Brazil

et al. 2021

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The sharp increase of COVID-19 cases in late 2020 has made Brazil the new epicenter of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The novel viral lineages P.1 (Variant of Concern Gamma) and P.2, respectively identified in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Rio de Janeiro, have been associated with potentially higher transmission rates and antibody neutralization escape. In this study, we performed the whole-genome sequencing of 185 samples isolated from three out of the five Brazilian regions, including Amazonas (North region), Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Bahia (Northeast region), and Rio de Janeiro (Southeast region) in order to monitor the spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil in the first months of 2021. Here, we showed a widespread dispersal of P.1 and P.2 across Brazilian regions and, except for Amazonas, P.2 was the predominant lineage identified in the sampled states. We estimated the origin of P.2 lineage to have happened in February, 2020 and identified that it has differentiated into new clades. Interstate transmission of P.2 was detected since March, but reached its peak in December, 2020 and January, 2021. Transmission of P.1 was also high in December and its origin was inferred to have happened in August 2020. We also confirmed the presence of lineage P.7, recently described in the southernmost region of Brazil, to have spread across the Northeastern states. P.1, P.2 and P.7 are descended from the ancient B.1.1.28 strain, which co-dominated the first phase of the pandemic in Brazil with the B.1.1.33 strain. We also identified the occurrence of a new lineage descending from B.1.1.33 that convergently carries the E484K mutation, N.9. Indeed, the recurrent report of many novel SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants in Brazil could be due to the absence of effective control measures resulting in high SARS-CoV2 transmission rates. Altogether, our findings provided a landscape of the critical state of SARS-CoV-2 across Brazil and confirm the need to sustain continuous sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 isolates worldwide in order to identify novel variants of interest and monitor for vaccine effectiveness.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Phylogenetic Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 tracks early interstate transmission of P.1 lineage and diversification within P.2 clade in Brazil

et al. 2021

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“…By January 2021, no treatment was available to cure the virus, and while several vaccines were distributed to contain the disease, uncertainty remains about the effectiveness of immunization programs (e.g., duration of immunity, impact on transmission, the effect on new virus variants, vaccine availability, and acceptance, or capacity to achieve herd immunity) [2][3][4]. Based on these challenges, mitigation strategies have been suggested as one of the best tools to contain the virus globally [5][6][7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Built Environment, Transport, and COVID-19: a Review

Rojas-Rueda

Morales-Zamora

2021

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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Purpose of Review The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted daily-life activities around the world. Multiple countries and cities are implementing different mitigation strategies to reduce their transmission (e.g., physical distancing, stay-at-home orders, avoiding large gatherings). Such interventions have been related to positive and negative health externalities. Currently, the selection of mitigation strategies has not been systematically considering a long-term vision for urban health equity. This review presents evidence and a framework linking COVID-19 mitigation strategies, the built environment, and transport to health determinants and outcomes. In addition, the paper provides a set of urban interventions aimed at supporting COVID-19 mitigation strategies and promoting a long-term health equity vision. Recent Findings COVID-19 mitigation strategies, in addition to helping reduce disease transmission, have also decreased urban road transport, resulting in indirect benefits on air quality, traffic noise, and traffic incidents. On the other hand, the same mitigation strategies have had negative impacts on physical activity, mental health, home isolation, and access to transport options, among others. COVID-19 mitigation strategies are an opportunity to test and implement built environment and transport interventions aimed to maximize health equity and minimize health risks. National and local authorities should systematically integrate a long-term urban health equity vision when designing and implementing COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Summary COVID-19 offers an opportunity to rethink the built environment and transport infrastructure with the aim to support short-term mitigation strategies and reduce long-term urban health inequities.

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“…Three studies 16 26 33 focused on policies of testing and tracing. For instance, McCombs and Kadelka 33 compared different testing priority strategies (eg, people at high risk or low risk are tested first, people with recent/early symptoms are tested first) under the condition that the maximum test volume per day is fixed.…”

Section: Strengths and Limitations Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of efficient testing and contact tracing in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic: a network modelling study

Hu¹,

Jian-ying²,

et al. 2021

BMJ Open

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ObjectivesThis study quantified how the efficiency of testing and contact tracing impacts the spread of COVID-19. The average time interval between infection and quarantine, whether asymptomatic cases are tested or not, and initial delays to beginning a testing and tracing programme were investigated.SettingWe developed a novel individual-level network model, called CoTECT (Testing Efficiency and Contact Tracing model for COVID-19), using key parameters from recent studies to quantify the impacts of testing and tracing efficiency. The model distinguishes infection from confirmation by integrating a ‘T’ compartment, which represents infections confirmed by testing and quarantine. The compartments of presymptomatic (E), asymptomatic (I), symptomatic (Is), and death with (F) or without (f) test confirmation were also included in the model. Three scenarios were evaluated in a closed population of 3000 individuals to mimic community-level dynamics. Real-world data from four Nordic countries were also analysed.Primary and secondary outcome measuresSimulation result: total/peak daily infections and confirmed cases, total deaths (confirmed/unconfirmed by testing), fatalities and the case fatality rate. Real-world analysis: confirmed cases and deaths per million people.Results(1) Shortening the duration between Is and T from 12 to 4 days reduces infections by 85.2% and deaths by 88.8%. (2) Testing and tracing regardless of symptoms reduce infections by 35.7% and deaths by 46.2% compared with testing only symptomatic cases. (3) Reducing the delay to implementing a testing and tracing programme from 50 to 10 days reduces infections by 35.2% and deaths by 44.6%. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. An analysis of real-world data showed that tests per case early in the pandemic are critical for reducing confirmed cases and the fatality rate.ConclusionsReducing testing delays will help to contain outbreaks. These results provide policymakers with quantitative evidence of efficiency as a critical value in developing testing and contact tracing strategies.

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A model-based evaluation of the efficacy of COVID-19 social distancing, testing and hospital triage policies

Cited by 22 publications

References 41 publications

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 tracks early interstate transmission of P.1 lineage and diversification within P.2 clade in Brazil

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 tracks early interstate transmission of P.1 lineage and diversification within P.2 clade in Brazil

Built Environment, Transport, and COVID-19: a Review

Role of efficient testing and contact tracing in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic: a network modelling study

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