A model-based assessment of adaptation options for Chianti wine production in Tuscany (Italy) under climate change

Abstract

This paper covers a comprehensive economic analysis of climate change adaptation options for a specific wine producing region, namely Tuscany. As temperature increases under climate change, rainfall patterns will be different, and Chianti wine production in Tuscany therefore needs to adapt in the near future. We address the adaptation challenges and identify grape yield and quality loss as the main impact of climate change on wine production. Relocation of vineyards uphill and introducing drought-resistant varieties are considered as adaptation measures. We appraise these adaptation measures using an optimization framework, where regional wine producers maximize income subject to economic constraints including the climate change impacts on wine productivity and quality. Our simulation shows quantitatively to what extent a higher degree of climate change impact demands a higher degree of adaptation. We find that a combination of the two measures provides a better strategy because it leads to higher economic efficiency. However, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of the new variety discourages the use of this new drought-resistant variety, whereas a higher efficiency would make this choice more favourable. Sensitivity analysis for time horizon and discount rate confirms the theory of investment under uncertainty, showing a shorter time horizon (or more frequent investment) provides the possibility to postpone the decision to implement adaptation measures due to the value of flexibility, while a higher discount rate leads to a later adaptation decision, because uncertainty creates a value of waiting for new information.

Rethinking Sustainability within the Viticulture Realities Integrating Economy, Landscape and Energy

“…The Italian country embodies the second largest wine producer recording a world market share of 16.4% and a turnover of €10.5 billion [49][50][51]. The rising demand, even foreign, of Italian wine resulted into a strong increase in recent decades [35].…”

“…Using Corine Land Cover maps, vineyard realities and landscape changes can be observed during three-time periods (2000, 2006 and 2012). The growing hectares for vineyards have been supported by a profitable market, noticeable in many Italian regions [51]. The spatial elaboration was implemented through a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) [56,57], extracting only the class of vineyards.…”

“…The spatial elaboration was implemented through a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) [56,57], extracting only the class of vineyards. Specifically, economically relevant areas such as in Tuscany and Veneto regions recorded an increasing cultivated surface area (Figure 2), allowing an improved production of their typical wines (e.g., Chianti and Prosecco) [51,58]. Source: (*) Istat, (**) Agea, (***) Ismea.…”

Towards a diagnostic adaptation science

“…Varela-Ortega et al (2014) analyse adaptation to climate change impacts on water use and crop yields in the Spanish Guadiana river basin, based on stakeholder preferences on different water management options, including increasing storage capacity, changing crop varieties and developing an insurance system. Zhu et al (2014) analyse climate change impacts on wine production in Tuscany and the impact of different adaptation options using an economic optimisation model. Holman et al (2014) analyse cross-sectoral impacts and robust adaptation policy options, together with Scottish stakeholders, using the CLIMSAVE (Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe; Harrison et al 2015) platform, developed in a project implemented under the same call as MEDIATION.…”

Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change.

“…We describe here some of the reasons for this choice related to the local context. The change from one grape variety to another, more resistant to hot summers and requiring less water, or the possibility of changing the location of the area where the grapes are cultivated, are considered as adaptation options in other areas affected by climate change (Lereboullet, et al, 2013, (Zhu, et al, 2014, Resco, et al 2015. However, a change in the variety of grapes or the place they are cultivated would also change the type of wine produced and the awarding of the quality label ("appellation") based on the notion of "terroir", crucial for the business model of winemakers in the French context.…”