A modal age at death approach to forecasting mortality

Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Vázquez-Castillo, Paola; Missov, Trifon I.

doi:10.31235/osf.io/5zr2k

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Modal age death corresponding to the maximum value of the density has become a better longevity indicator in low mortality population. ( Canudas-Romo 2008 [2] ,Canudas-Romo 2010 [3], Ouellette and Bourbeauet [4],Horiuchi et al 2013 [5] , Basellini and Camarda [6], Shang and Haberman [7] , Bergeron-Boucher et al [8]). Survival curves dimensions are used in mortality analysis to determine highest normal life duration that exceeds modal age, death around the modal age and the proportion of survivors in population (Cheung et al [9], Ebeling et al [10]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Mortality in Kenya

Njenga,

Kipchirchir

2024

ARJOM

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This research work seeks to analysis the mortality trend experienced in Kenya over the sample period 1950 to 2021 using a multidimensional modeling framework. Life table functions, namely; life expectancy, survival function and age at death distribution are applied to depict mortality characteristics. Life expectancy and survival rate have significantly improved. There has been a shift in mortality status from a high mortality population, to an intermediate stage and mortality risk factors have increased across age. Mortality concentration curve and index within the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient framework are used to analyze the lifespan inequality. Lifespan inequality is high with negligible improvements over time. Gompertz force of mortality is then estimated, which is statistically significant at 5% level. Deaths at exact age 25 is about 35 per ten thousand, with the rate death rate increasing by 6.09% per year starting from age 25. Under the assumptions of stable population, where the mortality and fertility functions are independent of time, Malthusian parameter is estimated which is less than zero for selected years. Kenya is a shrinking population and death rate decrease with increase in Malthusian parameter. Finally, to model long-term mortality rate forecast, Lee-Carter model is estimated. The model is statistically significant at 5% level explaining 78.4% of the variations. Expected life expectancy at a given age is projected to increase, with life expectancy at birth in 2030 and 2071 being 65.6 and 70.5 years respectively.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Mortality in Kenya

Njenga,

Kipchirchir

2024

ARJOM

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Longevity à la mode: A discretized derivative tests method for accurate estimation of the adult modal age at death

Vazquez-Castillo,

Bergeron-Boucher,

Missov

2024

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDThe modal age at death (or mode) is an important indicator of longevity associated with different mortality regularities. Accurate estimates of the mode are essential, but existing methods are not always able to provide them. OBJECTIVEOur objective is to develop a method to estimate the modal age at death, which is purely based on its mathematical properties. METHODSThe mode maximizes the density of the age-at-death distribution. In addition, at the mode, the rate of aging equals the force of mortality. Using these properties, we develop a novel discrete estimation method for the mode, the discretized derivative tests (DDT) method, and compare its outcomes to those of other existing models. RESULTSBoth the modal age at death and the rate of aging have been increasing since 1960 in lowmortality countries. The DDT method produces close estimates to the ones generated by the P-spline smoothing. CONCLUSIONSThe modal age at death plays a central role in estimating longevity advancement, quantifying mortality postponement, and estimating the rate of aging. The novel DDT method proposed here provides a simple and mathematically based estimation of the modal age at death. The method accounts for the mathematical properties of the mode and is not computationally demanding.

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A modal age at death approach to forecasting mortality

Cited by 2 publications

References 49 publications

Modelling Mortality in Kenya

Modelling Mortality in Kenya

Longevity à la mode: A discretized derivative tests method for accurate estimation of the adult modal age at death

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