A Mixed Method Approach for Analyzing Drivers of Land Use Land Cover Change in the Northwestern Ethiopian Highlands

Abstract

This study gives empirical evidence on the drivers of land use land cover change by conducting qualitative assessment first, and then making use of time series data for quantifying the relationship between land use land cover change and factors that cause the change. Analyzing the drivers of land use land cover change employing a mixed method approach gives good ground for the selection of exogenous variables as well as justification of the results of the quantitative analysis. Temporal changes of land use land cover in a given time are interdependent with changes in the previous years which needs time series data analysis. Vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables were used to analyze the time series data. The findings revealed demographic and environmental factors were the main causes of land use and land cover change. Population growth was found among the key drivers for losses of the natural vegetation on the one hand and rehabilitation of bare lands and grazing lands on the other hand, through contributing productive labor force for rehabilitating gullies, construction of soil and water conservation structures, and plantations of trees on degraded lands. This implies population growth can be an opportunity or a threat for sustainable natural resources management depending on how the available labor force is used. Climatic factors like maximum temperature and precipitation were also important causes of change in land use land cover. The study has important contributions to improving land use practices through designing appropriate land resources management policies.