A minimal model for household-based testing and tracing in epidemics

Abstract

In a previous work [Huber et al, A minimal model for household effects in epidemics. Physical Biology, 17(6):065010], we discussed virus transmission dynamics modified by a uniform clustering of contacts in the population: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between households. In this paper, we discuss testing and tracing in such a stratified population. We propose a minimal tracing strategy consisting of random testing of the entire population plus full testing of the households of those persons found positive. We provide estimates of testing frequency for this strategy to work.

Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders

“…We choose this factor to ensure that E[σ] = E[s]. In the numerical calculations in this section we used the following parameters roughly following [30][31][32]…”

“…We choose this factor to ensure that 𝔼[ σ ] = 𝔼[ s ]. In the numerical calculations in this section we used the following parameters roughly following [30–32] At present, our understanding of variability in individual suceptibility and infectivity is far from complete. While the consensus is that they have a wide distribution (see the discussion in the Introduction), the shape of this distribution is not known, and most studies assume a convenient one for their calculations.…”

“…Consider the distribution of infectivity σ and susceptibility s as a sum of the "normal" distribution p n and the susperspreaders p s with the latter having support at σ > σ s with large σ s , as shown in equation (32).…”