In this work, a model-based approach is proposed to validate the performance of aluminium nitride (AlN) piezoelectric material based ultrasonic MEMS transceiver for temperature sensing. This validation is performed based on the modelling of ultrasonic MEMS transceiver with AlN as piezoelectric material using COMSOL Multiphysics simulations. The output voltage values for different instances are evaluated by varying the input parameters of ultrasonic MEMS transceiver based temperature sensor. Moreover, the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) based regression model is used to estimate the output voltage from the input parameters ultrasonic MEMS transceiver. The results demonstrate that the LSSVM model successfully predicts the voltage with normalised correlation coefficient values of 0.9962, 0.9963 and 0.9780, respectively, using only transmitter section parameters, only receiver section parameters and, both transmitter and receiver sections parameters.