A mine sweeping game to predict large-scale earthquakes

Abstract

After a triggering earthquake (TGE) occurs on one side of a plate boundary, it often produces a vertical-downward shift, which will cause a vertical-upward shift on the other side of the plate boundary, where after a long period of time, the stress may be re-accumulated and a large earthquake (triggered earthquake, TDE) may occur. The larger the magnitude of the TGE is, the greater the distance between the TGE and TDE will be, and the longer the time interval between the TGE and TDE will be. The correlations between the magnitude and distance and between the magnitude and time interval were calculated. Based on the regression equations, we verified 86 large earthquakes over the past 100 years with magnitudes greater than 6.6. The prediction process is similar to a mine sweeping game. Although only 63%–88% of large-scare earthquakes can be accurately predicted, earthquakes of M ≥ 9.0 and earthquakes that have caused significant casualties had all met our model with a prediction accuracy of 100 km and 3 days.