A methodology to assess the future connectivity of protected areas by combining climatic representativeness and land-cover change simulations: the case of the Guadarrama National Park (Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

Protected areas are fundamental in conservation, but their intactness is increasingly threatened by the effects of climate and land cover changes. Here, a methodological procedure is proposed able to determine the representative climatic conditions of a protected area in central Spain (Guadarrama National Park) pinpointing the natural areas that will host future analogous conditions, but also assessing the effects of land cover changes on the connectivity of these areas. Future conditions provided by two 2050 IPCC climatic change scenarios and land cover changes simulations were jointly used for this purpose. According to the results obtained, climate change will produce notable effects, displacing its representative climatic conditions as well as modifying the land cover in the neighbour localities. Three areas appear as fundamental for the future maintenance of this reserve: two within the Iberian Central System (Gredos Mountains and Ayllón Mountains) and one in the Iberian System (Urbión Mountains). The proposed approach can be implemented in any protected area to examine its capacity to represent in the future the environmental conditions for which it was created.

Butterfly communities track climatic variation over space but not time in the Iberian Peninsula

“…Topographic variation can reduce rates of climate warming and provide a range of microclimatic conditions and habitats, helping species to shift their distributions on a local scale (Roth et al ., 2014). The need to protect sufficient abiotic variation to facilitate ecological and evolutionary responses to global change (‘conserving nature's stage’; Lawler et al ., 2015) demands that habitats are protected, connected and managed across geographic and climatic gradients, permitting communities to track ongoing changes to climate and land cover (Mingarro et al ., 2020).…”

Connecting protected areas in the Iberian peninsula to facilitate climate change tracking

“…188 Mario Mingarro and Jorge M Lobo the observed connectivity between INPs and recipient areas (Mingarro et al 2020). It is important to highlight that the Iberian Peninsula is largely mountainous and that this characteristic seems to be decisive in mitigating the effects of climatic change on biodiversity loss (Littlefield et al 2019), in a way that is comparable to that seen during Pleistocene times (Schmitt 2007).…”