A methodology for probabilistic simultaneous transfer capability analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous transfer capability analysis based on a probabilistic approach. A11 areas in a large scale power system are divided into three groups: (a) study area, (b) transfer participating areas. and (c) external areas which have no direct transactions or they have fixed transactions with the study area. A performance index based contingency selection procedure is applied within the study and transfer participating areas to rank those contingencies which will affect simultaneous transfer capability. The contingency ranking order is utilized by a variation of the Wind Chime diagram to selected contingencies which are then evaluated by an optimal power flow algorithm. Subsequently, the probability distribution of simultaneous transfer capability is computed based on the electric load, circuit and unit outage Markov models. The 24x3 bus IEEE RTS is utilized to evaluate the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is also demonstrated on an actual large scale system (21 82 bus, 8 area system).

ATC Estimation Approach Applying Co-Evolutionary Strategy

“…Let Y=f (X) represent the food concentration at current position located by artificial fish X, d ij =|X i -X j | express the distance between individual X i and X j , V isual express the scope of the visual area of artificial fish, S tep express the largest step-length and δ be the crowded coefficient when artificial fish move 1) Seeking-food behavior. Let the current state of artificial fish be X i , and X j be another state randomly selected in range of its visual field, and then, the seeking-food behavior of artificial fish is described according to ( 14) and (15).…”

“…However, the advances in probability solution are slow consistently. With the development of probability theory and increasing of computer operation speed, probability ATC solutions have already achieved some fruits, such as randomicity method [13][14] , enumeration method [15] , Monte Carlo method [16][17] , Bootstrap method [18] , and so on. So far today, for relevant investigations on ATC, considering limitations of mathematics theory itself and as well as computer operational levels, the probability solutions related to ATC are still quite difficult.…”

The Decomposition Calculation Method of Large Interconnected Grid Probabilistic Available Transfer Capability

“…While the ATC probabilistic algorithms can consider the influences of the random characteristics on the system conveniently, in order to comprehensively reflect the ATC of the interconnected grid, ATC should be evaluated by the probabilistic models. Currently, the main probabilistic ATC calculation methods are the stochastic programming method [2], the enumeration method [3], the Monte Carlo simulation method [4] and the Bootstrap-based algorithm [5].…”

Implementation of a Web-Based Grid Computing Model for Transient Stability Constrained TTC Evaluation

“…There exist two broad categories of methods for TTC evaluation: the deterministic methods and the probability-based methods [3,4]. The former can reflect the real operating situation of power systems better.…”