A Methodical Approach to Forecasting the Consumption of Petroleum Products by Their Main Types

Abstract

The article presents the development of a mathematical model for forecasting the demand for petroleum products using a comprehensive method for forecasting the consumption of petroleum products by individual types. The mathematical model allows forecasting the consumption of petroleum products in the country (TOP-level) and types of economic activity (DOWN-level) for transportation and conversion into electrical and thermal energy. The purpose of the research is the development of a methodical approach to forecasting the consumption of petroleum products with the determination of the forecast structure of the consumption of petroleum products by types using a mathematical model of forecasting energy consumption using a comprehensive method. Determining forecast volumes by individual types of oil products gives a greater discrepancy between forecast and actual data than forecasting oil products together. The forecast volume of oil product consumption is calculated to draw up the country's forecast energy balance. The forecast is determined in two stages: 1) forecasting of the total volume of consumption of petroleum products by country and aggregated types of economic activity, 2) forecasting of the structure of consumption of petroleum products by their main types. This approach is due to the fact that the structure of petroleum fuel consumption changes significantly depending on the prices of fuel and vehicles. To forecast the consumption of the main types of petroleum products, an analysis of statistical data for the retrospective period was used and the trends of their consumption were taken into account, as well as the realities of today: the war on the territory of Ukraine, the destruction of the industrial and energy infrastructure, which will require restoration for a long time. The provided forecasts will make it possible to assess the country’s need for certain types of petroleum fuel, to determine the sufficient volumes of own production and the necessary volumes of oil product imports. Bibl. 32, Tab. 3.