A method to reveal climatic variables triggering slope failures at high elevation

Paranunzio, Roberta; Laio, Francesco; Nigrelli, Guido; Chiarle, Marta

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1532-6

Cited by 30 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…For our work, we exploited the method proposed by Paranunzio et al (2015), which consists in a bottom-up statistical method for the identification of possible anomalous values of one or more climate variables (V ) on the occasion of slope instability events. The idea behind the method is to compare the climate conditions in the period preceding the failure to the climate conditions typical for the area where the failure has occurred.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Authors have speculated on possible relationships between changes of the mean air temperature and an increased activity of slope failures or have explored links between extreme air temperature events and rockfall occurrence (Allen and Huggel, 2013). Paranunzio et al (2015) proposed a method to investigate the possible relationships between the different climate variables and the triggering of slope failures and tested their method on different types of slope instabilities occurred in the Western Italian Alps. This method proved to be able to discriminate slope failures caused by climate factors and to point out the climate anomaly (or anomalies) that may be responsible for their occurrence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we use an advanced version of the method proposed by Paranunzio et al (2015) to analyse a catalogue of 41 rock-slope failures occurred from 1997 to 2013 at high elevation in the Italian Alps in the absence of an evident rainfall, seismic, or anthropic triggers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

Paranunzio

Laio

Chiarle

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate change is seriously affecting the cryosphere in terms, for example, of permafrost thaw, alteration of rain/snow ratio, and glacier shrinkage. There is concern about the increasing number of rockfalls at high elevation in the last decades. Nevertheless, the exact role of climate parameters in slope instability at high elevation has not been fully explored yet. In this paper, we investigate 41 rockfalls listed in different sources (newspapers, technical reports, and CNR IRPI archive) in the elevation range 1500-4200 m a.s.l. in the Italian Alps between 1997 and 2013 in the absence of an evident trigger. We apply and improve an existing data-based statistical approach to detect the anomalies of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) associated with rockfall occurrences. The identified climate anomalies have been related to the spatiotemporal distribution of the events. Rockfalls occurred in association with significant temperature anomalies in 83 % of our case studies. Temperature represents a key factor contributing to slope failure occurrence in different ways. As expected, warm temperatures accelerate snowmelt and permafrost thaw; however, surprisingly, negative anomalies are also often associated with slope failures. Interestingly, different regional patterns emerge from the data: higher-than-average temperatures are often associated with rockfalls in the Western Alps, while in the Eastern Alps slope failures are mainly associated with colder-than-average temperatures.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

Paranunzio

Laio

Chiarle

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…However, while debris flows are often preceded by intense rainfall, capturing the rainfall in mountain catchments can be difficult due to the lack of rain gauges or poor coverage by weather radar in mountainous regions (Nikolopoulos et al 2014;Pavlova et al 2014). Therefore, other meteorological proxies for debris flow occurrence can account for deficiencies in precipitation records, either without (Turkington et al 2014) or alongside rainfall (Paranunzio et al 2015;Rulli et al 2007). Temperature has been used where snow and thaw can contribute to debris flow occurrence (e.g.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature has been used where snow and thaw can contribute to debris flow occurrence (e.g. Paranunzio et al (2015)) as well as to distinguish between snow and rain (e.g. van den Heuvel et al (2016)).…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

et al. 2016

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Future trends in debris flow activity are constructed based on bias-corrected climate change projections using two meteorological proxies: daily precipitation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) combined with specific humidity for two Alpine areas. Along with a comparison between proxies, future number of days with debris flows are analyzed with respect to different regional and global climate models, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and area for quantile mapping. Two different base periods are also analyzed, as debris flows were observed on only 6 (17) days between 1950 and 1979, yet on 18 (49) days between 1980 and 2009 for Fella River, NE Italy (Barcelonnette, SE French Alps). For both areas, future climate projections vary between no change up to an increase of 6.0 % per decade in days with debris flow occurrences towards the end of 21st century. In Barcelonnette, the base period and proxy have a bigger impact on the future number of debris flow days than the climate model or RCP used. In Fella River, the base period, RCP, and proxy used define the future range. Therefore the selection of proxy, base period and downscaling technique should be carefully considered for future climate change impact studies concerning debris flow activity and associated fast-moving landslides.

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Microseismicity of an Unstable Rock Mass: From Field Monitoring to Laboratory Testing

et al. 2018

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The field‐scale microseismic (MS) activity of an unstable rock mass is known to be an important tool to assess damage and cracking processes eventually leading to macroscopic failures. However, MS‐event rates alone may not be enough for a complete understanding of the trigger mechanisms of mechanical instabilities. Acoustic Emission (AE) techniques at the laboratory scale can be used to provide complementary information. In this study, we report a MS/AE comparison to assess the stability of a granitic rock mass in the northwestern Italian Alps (Madonna del Sasso). An attempt to bridge the gap between the two different scales of observation, and the different site and laboratory conditions, is undertaken to gain insights on the rock mass behavior as a function of external governing factors. Time‐ and frequency‐domain parameters of the MS/AE waveforms are compared and discussed with this aim. At the field scale, special attention is devoted to the correlation of the MS‐event rate with meteorological parameters (air temperature and rainfalls). At the laboratory scale, AE rates, waveforms, and spectral content, recorded under controlled temperature and fluid conditions, are analyzed in order to better constrain the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed field patterns. The factors potentially governing the mechanical instability at the site were retrieved from the integration of the results. Abrupt thermal variations were identified as the main cause of the site microsesimicity, without highlighting irreversible acceleration in the MS‐event rate potentially anticipating the rock mass collapse.

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A method to reveal climatic variables triggering slope failures at high elevation

Cited by 30 publications

References 28 publications

Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

Microseismicity of an Unstable Rock Mass: From Field Monitoring to Laboratory Testing

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