A Method to Determine the Priority of Investment in Disaster Prevention for Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

Nunokawa, Osamu; Sugiyama, Tomoyasu; Mori, Taiki; Hata, Akihito

doi:10.2208/jscejge.67.160

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…is called risk theory and has developed uniquely in mathematical analysis such as the Cramér-Lundberg model and extreme value theory 25) , and Ermolieva et al (2017) 26) From the viewpoint of structural engineering, many engineering studies have been conducted to date on natural disaster risk assessment of railway structures 9) . In respect of storm and flood disaster risk assessment, research and practical application have progressed, for example, in rainfall risk assessment 27) of the slopes along railways. Regarding the earthquake risk assessment, it was difficult to implement an engineering analysis of earthquake damages on the ground and structures from an epicenter and along railway lines with a total length of several tens to hundreds kilometers.…”

Section: Risk Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ruin Probability on Storm and Flood Disaster Risk Finance in Multiple Railway Businesses

Ohori

2019

Journal of JSCE

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Given that the losses incurred from natural disasters are uncertain and characterized by considerable fluctuation, restoration funds intended for disaster preparation are usually calculated based on the assumption of probable maximum loss (PML). However, preparing for PML via the acquisition of sufficient funding is difficult for railway companies that suffer from financial difficulties. These companies urgently need to implement risk financing (RF) strategies against frequent storm and flood disasters to avoid insolvency. Meanwhile, there is also a great need for an analysis of storm and flood disaster RF with targeting multiple railway businesses for reasons of group insurance or consolidated accounting. To address these issues, this study develop a financial risk model that considers the disaster-related characteristics and financial conditions of multiple railway businesses and establish a ruin probability model for the mathematical analysis of the procurement of funds, including initial reserves, insurance money, and subsidy. These models are designed to help multiple railway businesses prepare for losses estimated on the grounds of data on past damages. Case studies that feature actual data on railway companies across Japan are conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed models.

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Section: Risk Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ruin Probability on Storm and Flood Disaster Risk Finance in Multiple Railway Businesses

Ohori

2019

Journal of JSCE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

A Method to Determine the Priority of Investment in Disaster Prevention for Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

Cited by 1 publication

References 8 publications

Ruin Probability on Storm and Flood Disaster Risk Finance in Multiple Railway Businesses

Ruin Probability on Storm and Flood Disaster Risk Finance in Multiple Railway Businesses

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