A method for predicting the impact of climate change on slope stability

Buma, Jelle; Dehn, Martin

doi:10.1007/s002540050305

Cited by 67 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Numerical simulations were conducted, first using the monthly time series of rainfall and temperatures at the Barcelonnette climatic station (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and second, using the monthly time series provided by a downscale Global Change Model (2041Model ( -2060. The data used are from Buma and Dehn (1998). Figure 11 illustrates the reconstitution of the earthflow's hydrological behaviour driven by these climate variations.…”

Section: Model Forecasts and Practical Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

Malet

Asch

Beek

et al. 2005

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

120

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short-and longterm. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes.

show abstract

Section: Model Forecasts and Practical Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

Malet

Asch

Beek

et al. 2005

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

120

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Beniston et al, 2007). Actual climate models project that future climate warming in central Europe will bring more frequent extreme events and especially heavy precipitations and floods (Buma and Dehn, 1998;Christensen and Christensen, 2003;Beniston et al, 2007;Stewart et al, 2011). Flood hazards vary as a function of the hydroclimatic regime, position within the drainage basin and human interaction in the catchment (Wohl, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards

Simonneau

Chapron²,

Vannière

et al. 2013

Clim. Past

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD 2005, AD 1891, AD 1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000–4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use

show abstract

“…Indeed, although the number of studies attempting to estimate the effect of CC on landslide phenomena is substantially increasing (Coe & Godt, 2012), in such works-reduced (GCM+RCM) or short-circuited (GCM+SA) chains have been preferred (Buma & Dehn, 1998;Collison et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Approaches Versus Weather Generator to Downscale RCM Outputs to Point Scale: A Comparison of Performances

Villani¹,

Rianna²,

Mercogliano³

et al. 2015

J. Urb. and Environ. Engng

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:To properly evaluate weather variables regulating the occurrence of geo-hydrological hazards, the current constraints of climate models imply the need of adopting statistical approaches in cascade to GCM/RCM for the assessment of the potential variations associated to climate changes. Since, in the last years, several approaches, often freely available, have been proposed and applied to investigate various hazards in different geographical areas and geomorphological contexts, a deeper understanding about their performances and constraints is crucial; in the work, it is carried out focusing the attention on two kind of approaches widely adopted in impact studies: bias correction methods (in particular, quantile mapping tools) and weather generators. Both methodology have been applied to outputs of an high resolution RCM simulation carried out on Italian territory for analyzing two very localized (and then challenging) landslide case studies. Beyond an assessment about relative performances in reproducing weather variables on the areas, the goal concerns an increasing awareness about how these approaches could affect the climate signal, physically detected by RCM, not only in outputs weather variables but also in derived components of soil surface budgets strictly governing the occurrence of landslide phenomena.

show abstract

A method for predicting the impact of climate change on slope stability

Cited by 67 publications

References 15 publications

Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards

Statistical Approaches Versus Weather Generator to Downscale RCM Outputs to Point Scale: A Comparison of Performances

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About