A method for inferring extinction based on sighting records that change in frequency over time

Jarić, Ivan; Ebenhard, Torbjörn

doi:10.2981/09-044

Cited by 13 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…There have been a number of different approaches developed thus far within the group of methods for inferring extinction based on sighting records, such as those by Solow (1993a, b), Burgman et al (1995), Roberts & Solow (2003), McInerny et al (2006) and Jarić & Ebenhard (2010). However, as an example of their application on the estimation of invasive species distribution, we will use only the first and the most widely employed method, Solow's equation (Solow, 1993a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…This group of methods has so far been applied on the assessment of the extinction probability of a species, either a rare or endangered one (e.g. Roberts & Solow, 2003;McInerny et al, 2006;Jarić et al, 2009;Jarić & Ebenhard, 2010), or of an invasive species after an eradication program (Rout et al, 2009). However, there have been no attempts to use them for the assessment of species distributions; in other words, attempts to apply them for a spatial dimension, instead of a temporal one.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing the range of newly established invasive species in rivers using probabilistic methods

Jarić

Cvijanović²,

Hegediš³

et al. 2011

Hydrobiologia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Data on the presence of invasive species are often scarce, especially during the initial period following their introduction, when population abundance and species detectability are both still very low. In such cases, sporadic sightings in their newly occupied territory are often the only available information about their presence and distribution. Here, we demonstrate the potential of using probabilistic models for the assessment of the distribution of newly established invasive species in rivers, based on their sighting records. We have applied Solow's equation to the sighting record of the Amur sleeper (Perccottus glenii) in the Danube River, to assess the probable range of its population. The method applied indicated that, at the time when the sightings have been made (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008), the Amur sleeper population in the Danube most probably extended between the 704.5 and 1,178.5 river km, while it was highly improbable (P \ 0.05) that it was present downstream from the 606 river km or upstream from the 1,277 river km. The application of this approach has, however, to be tested further on a larger number of scenarios and case studies in order to evaluate its reliability. What this method lacks in complexity, compared to more advanced species distribution assessments, it makes up by its ability to be easily used and quickly applied for preliminary assessments of the ranges of riverine species. As a result, the proposed approach might be of interest for scientists and managers dealing with invasive species.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Assessing the range of newly established invasive species in rivers using probabilistic methods

Jarić

Cvijanović²,

Hegediš³

et al. 2011

Hydrobiologia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In contrast, Bayesian methods give the probability that a species is extant, given the sighting data. There are several instances in which these two outputs have been confused in the existing literature (Burgman, Grimson & Ferson ; McCarthy ; McPherson & Myers ; Jaric & Ebenhard ; Chong et al . ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(), 2 Rivadeneira, Hunt & Roy (), 3 Solow (), 4 Collen, Purvis & Mace (), 5 Clements et al . () and 6 Jaric & Ebenhard ().…”

Section: Frequentist Methodsunclassified

Inferring species extinction: the use of sighting records

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Summary1. Accurate measures of extinction are needed in biodiversity monitoring and conservation management, but ascertaining the exact time at which a species became extinct is difficult since a small population may go undetected for many years. 2. For little-studied species, often the only information available is historical sighting data. Several statistical tests have been developed which use this information to make inferences about a species' extinction. The increasing array of methods can present a daunting choice. 3. We review the more frequently cited methods, for each model explaining its assumptions, the data required, the scenarios it was developed for and power considerations, if known. We provide guidance on selecting the most appropriate method for a particular sighting record. 4. We give examples from the literature to show how the methods have been usefully applied across conservation research, informing conservation decision-making and extinction inference.

show abstract

“…Each method is characterized by a set of statistical assumptions conditioning its adequate application to a given time series (e.g., sampling probability uniformly distributed and independent, or dating error being constant; Table 1 and Solow et al, 2006), which if violated, can lead to the misclassification of a species as extinct or extant (so-called Type I and II statistical inference errors, respectively; Brosi and Biber, 2008;Jari c and Ebenhard, 2010;Fisher and Blomberg, 2012). In addition to methodological issues, the quality (number of records, record interval, variation in dating error over time) and the reliability of the datasets used to infer q (e.g., species misidentification e Rasmussen and Prys-Jones, 2003; an erroneous ceiling on apparent dates due the time limit of radiocarbon [ 14 C] dating validity e Walker, 2005) also strongly affect model performance (Rivadeneira et al, 2009;Solow et al, 2011;Bradshaw et al, 2012a;Lee et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in dating constrain model choice for inferring extinction time from fossil records

Saltré

Brook

Rodríguez-Rey

et al. 2015

Quaternary Science Reviews

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A method for inferring extinction based on sighting records that change in frequency over time

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 13 publications

References 21 publications

Assessing the range of newly established invasive species in rivers using probabilistic methods

Assessing the range of newly established invasive species in rivers using probabilistic methods

Inferring species extinction: the use of sighting records

Uncertainties in dating constrain model choice for inferring extinction time from fossil records

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About